As I have grown up, I have always been told that people are responsible for making their own luck and that there is no such thing as being lucky or unlucky. But don’t tell that to the 2021 Detroit Lions.
According to Ty Schalter of FiveThirtyEight, the 2021 Detroit Lions were among the unluckiest teams in the NFL, and had they won all of the “coin flip” games that they lost, their record would have looked much different than it actually did.
From FiveThirtyEight:
According to ESPN Stats & Information Group’s win probability model, 66 out of 272 regular-season games in 2021 could truly have gone either way at the finish. (As in my previous article, I defined a “coin-flip game” as having a win-probability split of 60/40 or closer at some point within the last five minutes of the game.) But just flipping the result of each coin-flip game doesn’t tell us much.
2021 Detroit Lions among unluckiest teams in NFL
The Lions finished the 2021 season with a 3-13-1 record but, according to Schalter, had they won their “coin flip” games they would have finished the season with a 7-10 record.
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | TIES | WINS | LOSSES | CHG IN W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 9 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 4 | +4.0 |
| Bills | 11 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 2 | +4.0 |
| Ravens | 8 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +4.0 |
| Vikings | 8 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +4.0 |
| Lions | 3 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 10 | +3.5 |
| Chargers | 9 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +3.0 |
| Bengals | 10 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 4 | +3.0 |
| Patriots | 10 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 4 | +3.0 |
| 49ers | 10 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 4 | +3.0 |
| Chiefs | 12 | 5 | 0 | 15 | 2 | +3.0 |
| Seahawks | 7 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 7 | +3.0 |
| Browns | 8 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 6 | +3.0 |
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | TIES | WINS | LOSSES | CHG IN W |
| Raiders | 10 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 12 | -5.0 |
| Ravens | 8 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 14 | -5.0 |
| Steelers | 9 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 12 | -4.5 |
| Packers | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 8 | -4.0 |
| Buccaneers | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 8 | -4.0 |
| Falcons | 7 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 14 | -4.0 |
| Titans | 12 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 9 | -4.0 |
| Chargers | 9 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 12 | -4.0 |
| Vikings | 8 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 12 | -3.0 |
| Commanders | 7 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 13 | -3.0 |
| Cowboys | 12 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 8 | -3.0 |
| Jets | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 16 | -3.0 |
