2021 Detroit Lions among unluckiest teams in NFL

By W.G. Brady  - Senior News Desk Writer
4 Min Read
Detroit Lions among unluckiest in 2021
Sep 11, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; A view of the Detroit Lions logo on a helmet on the sidelines during a game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Lions won 39-35. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

As I have grown up, I have always been told that people are responsible for making their own luck and that there is no such thing as being lucky or unlucky. But don’t tell that to the 2021 Detroit Lions.

According to Ty Schalter of FiveThirtyEight, the 2021 Detroit Lions were among the unluckiest teams in the NFL, and had they won all of the “coin flip” games that they lost, their record would have looked much different than it actually did.

From FiveThirtyEight:

According to ESPN Stats & Information Group’s win probability model, 66 out of 272 regular-season games in 2021 could truly have gone either way at the finish. (As in my previous article, I defined a “coin-flip game” as having a win-probability split of 60/40 or closer at some point within the last five minutes of the game.) But just flipping the result of each coin-flip game doesn’t tell us much.

2021 Detroit Lions among unluckiest teams in NFL

The Lions finished the 2021 season with a 3-13-1 record but, according to Schalter, had they won their “coin flip” games they would have finished the season with a 7-10 record.

TEAM WINS LOSSES TIES WINS LOSSES CHG IN W
Colts 9 8 0 13 4 +4.0
Bills 11 6 0 15 2 +4.0
Ravens 8 9 0 12 5 +4.0
Vikings 8 9 0 12 5 +4.0
Lions 3 13 1 7 10 +3.5
Chargers 9 8 0 12 5 +3.0
Bengals 10 7 0 13 4 +3.0
Patriots 10 7 0 13 4 +3.0
49ers 10 7 0 13 4 +3.0
Chiefs 12 5 0 15 2 +3.0
Seahawks 7 10 0 10 7 +3.0
Browns 8 9 0 11 6 +3.0
TEAM WINS LOSSES TIES WINS LOSSES CHG IN W
Raiders 10 7 0 5 12 -5.0
Ravens 8 9 0 3 14 -5.0
Steelers 9 7 1 5 12 -4.5
Packers 13 4 0 9 8 -4.0
Buccaneers 13 4 0 9 8 -4.0
Falcons 7 10 0 3 14 -4.0
Titans 12 5 0 8 9 -4.0
Chargers 9 8 0 5 12 -4.0
Vikings 8 9 0 5 12 -3.0
Commanders 7 10 0 4 13 -3.0
Cowboys 12 5 0 9 8 -3.0
Jets 4 13 0 1 16 -3.0

*Coin-flip games are defined as games where the favorite had a 60 percent win probability or less in the last 5 minutes.

SOURCE: ESPN STATS & INFORMATION GROUP

This could be another sign that the 2022 Detroit Lions are going to win a lot more games than they did a season ago.

Nation, how many games do you think the Lions will win in 2022?

 

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