The 2022 NFL free agency period will officially begin on March 16th at 4 p.m. EST and you can bet the Detroit Lions are going to be active.
That being said, I am a big believer in not breaking the bank on big-name players UNLESS you are only one or two stud players away from competing for a Super Bowl.
News flash: The Lions are not one or two players away from truly competing for a Super Bowl.
When the free agency period begins, I expect Lions GM Brad Holmes to bring in some players who are starting-caliber but not superstars. Essentially, he will be looking for some players who are “under-the-radar” but could end up being a steal.
On Thursday, Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press released an article in which he lists 5 potential free agent steals for the Lions.
Here are the players Birkett suggests along with a breakdown from Pro Football Focus.
Derek Barnett, edge, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles let 2017 first-round pick Derek Barnett play out his fifth-year option season in 2021, going so far as to push $7.25 million in salary cap into 2022 just to fit everyone on the books. While this could suggest the two sides will at least explore an extension after the season, Philadelphia just signed 2018 third-round edge rusher Josh Sweat to a three-year, $40 million extension, which could make Barnett the odd man out.
Barnett is very consistent, with his five season grades landing between 59.0 and 68.0. No facet of his play has ever earned a grade below 50.0 for a season. He has a very high floor, but his ceiling may not be as high as was originally projected when he came out of Tennessee. A good comparison contract signed recently could be Cincinnati Bengals edge rusher Sam Hubbard, who signed a four-year, $40 million extension before the 2021 season. Hubbard is also a player who is stout in run defense at 4-3 defensive end but doesn’t offer a ton of production as a pass-rusher.
Contract Projection: Three years, $37.5 million ($12.5M per year, $25M total guaranteed)
Lorenzo Carter, edge, New York Giants
Injuries kept Carter off the field at times, but he earned four 65.0-plus season grades over his rookie contract. Carter was drafted to be a pass-rusher but has struggled to consistently generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Perhaps new Giants defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale and his blitz-happy approach can unlock Carter if he sticks around.
Contract Projection: Two years, $8 million ($4M per year), $5 million total guaranteed
Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons
*From Birkett:
Hurst has one season with more than 30 catches in his career, not coincidentally the only season he started more than five games. A first-round pick by the Baltimore Ravens in 2018, he played his first two years behind Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews in Baltimore and was a sidekick to talented rookie Kyle Pitts last season. Hurst turns 29 this fall and is only an adequate blocker, but in the right system he could outperform whatever contract he gets in a crowded market. O.J. Howard, another former first-round tight end, is in a similar boat.
Terrell Edmunds, safety, Pittsburgh Steelers
Edmunds has been a solid starter on the back end for the Pittsburgh Steelers after becoming a surprise first-round pick in 2018, but the Steelers declined to exercise his $6.75 million fifth-year option for the 2022 season. Edmunds earned his second consecutive coverage grade above 70.0 but also his second straight run-defense grade below 60.0 with a career-low 34.0.
A deal resembling Baltimore Ravens safety Chuck Clark’s three-year, $15.3 million contract from the 2021 offseason looks fitting, but Edmunds could push for something closer to Jacksonville Jaguars safety Rayshawn Jenkins’ four-year, $35 million deal.
Contract Projection: Three years, $15 million ($5M per year), $7.75 million total guaranteed
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, edge, Los Angeles Rams
Okoronkwo has struggled to consistently see the field on an absolutely loaded Rams defensive front, but he made the most of his opportunities in 2021 with a career-best 79.2 overall and 72.8 pass-rush grade. He has 25 quarterback hurries on fewer than 250 pass-rush snaps since 2020 but will need to maintain that level of production with a larger snap share to truly cash in.
Contract Projection: One year, $2.25 million, $1 million total guaranteed
