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Monday, February 24, 2020

If these 8 things happen, Michigan will make the College Football Playoff

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This coming Saturday, Michigan will look to end their 2019 regular season schedule with a bang when they host the hated Ohio State Buckeyes.

As it currently stands, according to Five Thirty-Eight, the Wolverines currently have a 2% chance of making the College Football Playoff, while the Buckeyes have a 78% chance.

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Now, nobody who follows college football believes the Wolverines will be in the playoff this season, but thanks to an article by Click On Detroit, we now know the path for that to happen.

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Here are the 8 things that need to happen for Michigan to beat the odds and qualify for the College Football Playoff.

From ClickOnDetroit:

1. Michigan beats Ohio State

2. Auburn beats Alabama

3. Wisconsin beats Minnesota

NOTE: An alternate scenario is Minnesota beating Wisconsin but losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. That would probably drop both Minnesota and Wisconsin below Michigan, as well. But putting a 10-2 team ahead of an 11-2 team that picked up its second loss while the first team watched from home is always dangerous.

4. Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma

5. Oregon beats Utah

6. Oklahoma beats Baylor

7. LSU beats Georgia

8. Ohio State beats Wisconsin

Other considerations

Penn State: Michigan also has a head-to-head loss against Penn State, which will finish 10-2 and around No. 10 in the rankings. A win over Ohio State would be enough to overcome that loss in University Park, though, and the Wolverines would certainly finish in front, much like Penn State did after losing in Ann Arbor in 2016.

Florida: The Gators are a complication because they’re already ranked ahead of Michigan in the CFP poll and will likely finish 10-2 after a home game against Florida State. But the resumes wouldn’t even compare in this situation. Florida only has one win over a ranked team: Auburn. The rest of its resume is extremely underwhelming. If the Gators finish 10-2, nine of their wins will have come against teams with at least five losses. Michigan’s wins over Notre Dame, Iowa, Indiana and Ohio State would make this an easy decision.

Auburn: A win over Alabama would be a feather in Auburn’s cap, and SEC bias often prevails when two resumes are similar at the end of the regular season. But Michigan is already ranked ahead of Auburn, and Ohio State is ranked ahead of Alabama, so if Michigan beats Ohio State on the same day Auburn beats Alabama, there’s no reason for the committee to flip these two teams. The Tigers also have three losses.

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Nation, if these 8 things happen, which is HIGHLY unlikely, the seeding would look as follows.

  1. LSU
  2. Clemson
  3. Ohio State
  4. Michigan
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In this scenario, Michigan would play LSU and Clemson would play Ohio State in the National Semifinals with the winners squaring off in the College Football Playoff title game.

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