ESPN’s Sports Analytics team have announced their 2017 Pre-Season Football Power Index ratings for all 32 NFL teams, and the Detroit Lions are not looked on favorably. In fact, the Lions are rated as more likely to be making the first pick of the 2018 draft than to be lifting the Vince Lombardi trophy in February.
Expected points added per play by each team’s offense, defense, and special teams units are combined to arrive at the overall FPI rating (Full explanations are here and here), which is then carried forward as the upcoming season is simulated 10,000 times to assess each Franchise’s chances for the 2017 campaign.
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Detroit ranks a lowly 20th overall with a score of -0.7, level with the L.A Chargers and well below divisional rivals Green Bay and Minnesota but higher than Chicago.
The Patriots rank number 1 with an overall FPI of +9.2, far out ahead of Green Bay in 2nd place with +4.8. Steelers, Seahawks, and Falcons complete the top 5, with +4.7, +4.2 and +3.8 respectively. Elsewhere in the NFC North, Minnesota clock an overall +0.8 and Chicago come 28th in the league with -5.2. Unsurprisingly, Rams (-5.3), Jets (-6.0), Browns and 49ers (both at -7.6) take the bottom 4 spots.
The Packers are given a 60.1% chance of adding a 6th divisional crown in seven years, powered by their 2nd place ranked Offense. Mike Zimmer’s Vikes grade out with the 2nd best defense in the NFL but their 24th Offense results in just a 24.4% chance of registering their 4th NFC North title. Despite being a Sunday Night Football win at Lambeau Field away from winning the Division in 2016, Detroit is given only 12.9% chance of victory in 2017. Based on these rankings, no NFC North team is predicted to win 10 games or more.
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Things look even bleaker for Detroit when it comes to the Post Season, with just an 11.7% chance of even sneaking a wild card entry, 2.1% to be the No. 1 seed overall and a pitiful 0.6% prospect of winning the Big One at U.S Bank Stadium on February 4th, 2018.
One small crumb of comfort may be that Detroit is statistically more likely to qualify for the Super Bowl (1.9%) than they are to be making the first pick overall of the 2018 draft (1.7%).
Much of this doom and gloom comes from the FPI Strength of Schedule rankings, where the Lions are viewed as having the 11th most challenging schedule of 2017, compared to just the 21st most difficult in 2016. FPI makes note of factors such as home field advantage and rest periods before each game, which is why the Lions get just a 23% chance of victory in their week 9 match up. Against Aaron Rodgers. At Lambeau. Straight of the back of a Packers bye week.
So, ESPN has it looking to be a pretty difficult season for Detroit in 2017, predicting just 7.5 wins and 8.5 defeats. Given the challenging nature of the schedule, this may even be a rather optimistic outlook compared to some others. However, with just under 100 days left until the kick-off of the 98th NFL season, there’s still a heck of a long way to go and an awful lot could change. What do you think, Nation. Are these ratings too harsh on Detroit, or should Lions fans everywhere be anticipating (another) disappointing season?