The Michigan State Spartans are currently 7-2 (5-1 Big Ten), and are ranked No. 12 in the country. They head to Columbus to take on the 13th-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes this weekend, in a game that will likely decide the Big Ten east.
Although the Spartans’ playoff chances are slim, they got a big boost after defeating Penn State last weekend in East Lansing. Here are five things that NEED to happen if MSU wants to return to the college football playoff for the second time in three years:
WIN OUT
This is the most basic, yet most challenging thing that needs to happen for Michigan State to return to the college football playoff. The Spartans can’t afford another loss. Their remaining games are at Ohio State, home vs. Maryland, and at Rutgers.
If they can win those three, they will head to Indianapolis to play in the Big Ten championship game, where they will most likely meet up Wisconsin. Win that game, and the Spartans will have done their part in returning to college football’s biggest stage.
REGULAR SEASON LOSS BY GEORGIA/ALABAMA
Even if the Spartans are able to win out, they’re gonna need some help. There are only four spots in the playoff so something has to give somewhere.
Right now, the SEC has the No. 1 and 2 ranked teams in the latest rankings, in Georgia and Alabama. Those two teams are on a collision course to meet up in the SEC championship game but there has been speculation that if both teams enter that game undefeated, the loser might still reach the playoff. That would spell disaster for a team like Michigan State.
However, the solution is simple. One of those teams just simply has to lose a regular season game before they get to that point, and it’s not that far out considering they both have to visit No. 10 Auburn in the last month of the season. You can bet the Spartans will be the newest fans of the Tigers this November.
WASHINGTON LOSS
The Pac-12 is the one conference the Spartans shouldn’t have to worry about. There’s only one team out there that has any playoff hopes remaining; Washington. The Huskies already have one loss on their record and if they take a second, there’s no way their resume will be able to hold up to Michigan States’ potential resume.
The chances of this happening are pretty good, considering Washington has to play at Stanford this weekend and host Washington State in the regular season finale, before potentially going up against likely USC in the Pac-12 championship game.
LOSS BY NOTRE DAME OR 2-LOSS BIG 12 CHAMPION
At this point, I’m conceding the SEC will get at least one team in and the ACC champion will be represented in the playoff as well. That leaves two spots so one of two things needs to happen: a) Notre Dame has to lose another game or b) the Big 12 champion has to fall one more time.
If Notre Dame and somebody from the Big 12 wins out, there’s no way the selection committee is going to put the Spartans ahead of one of those teams. But if the Irish lose again it’s hard to imagine the committee giving the nod to a two-loss Notre Dame team who isn’t part of a conference. Therefore, they’re incapable of adding a conference championship to their resume, and even though they did beat Michigan State head-to-head, I’m pretty certain the committee will go back and realize that game took place early when the Spartans were young and inexperienced. And oh by the way, MSU gave Notre Dame 21 points off of turnovers in that game when they actually out-gained the Irish by over 100 yards.
As for the Big 12, there’s not one team out there who could have a more impressive resume than the Spartans. Even if it’s Oklahoma, their win at Ohio State will be no more impressive than the Spartans’ in this theoretical scenario. So one of these two things has to happen; again highly possible.
BIG TEN’S TOP TIER TEAMS WIN OUT
You notice how I keep talking about Michigan States’ potential impressive resume? The keyword here is ‘potential’. First of all, the Spartans have to win out, like I stated above. But secondly and maybe more importantly, the opponents MSU could beat need to keep winning or those Spartan victories suddenly won’t seem so impressive.
For instance, Ohio State can’t go get blown out at Michigan; and Wisconsin can’t lose to Minnesota in their regular season finale. If something like this were to happen, the Spartans’ resume wouldn’t look nearly as good as it once did on the surface. So not only does Michigan State need to beat a couple of difficult opponents, they need those opponents to keep winning in their other games as well.
To summarize, there’s a pretty good chance a few of these things happen, but that won’t be good enough. All of these things need to happen for Michigan State to return to the College Football Playoff. It’s not likely, but that doesn’t mean it’s not possible. There is hope in East Lansing.
