Let’s face it: the Detroit Lions are not going to win the NFC North. But, believe it or not, they are actually legitimate players in the NFC Wild Card race, and with a couple breaks in their favor, might actually have a fair chance of securing one of those spots.
http://gty.im/878693718
As it stands right now, the Minnesota Vikings have a stranglehold on the division, with a 9-2 record. Detroit’s 6-5 record puts them three games back with five games remaining. I’m not going to dig into the tie-breaking methods between these two teams because it seems unlikely that Minnesota stumbles through the last five games of the season. Detroit needs to be much more concerned with securing a playoff spot through the wild card.
The biggest step in the right direction for Detroit is obvious: win games. Of the five remaining games on the schedule, none are exactly against juggernauts. This weekend the team travels to Baltimore (6-5), then travels to Tampa Bay (4-7), hosts Chicago (3-8), travels to Cincinnati (5-6), and hosts Green Bay (5-6). All of these are winnable games for Detroit (especially if Green Bay falls out of the playoff race and Aaron Rodgers does not return this year). The odds of winning out are probably pretty long, but winning four of the final games would put Detroit at 10-6. While 10 wins should generally be enough to secure a wild card spot, this year might be an exception. Let’s examine.
http://gty.im/884073826
Currently, the Carolina Panthers (8-3) and the Atlanta Falcons (7-4) hold the two wild card spots in the NFC. The Seattle Seahawks (7-4) are the “first team out” right now, and the only other player in the race (at this point) is the Dallas Cowboys, who sit at 6-6 (and have a returning Ezekiel Elliott in a couple weeks). Green Bay and Arizona (5-6) are hardly relevant enough in the race to elaborate on.
Having lost their matchup against Carolina earlier this season, Detroit is realistically three games back of the Panthers. With a remaining schedule of @New Orleans (8-3), vs Minnesota, vs Green Bay, vs Tampa Bay, and @Atlanta, it’s likely safe to assume that they will surpass the 10 win mark, which is where I’m setting the bar for the Lions. Even if Carolina finishes with 10 wins, Detroit loses the tie-breaker because of the head-to-head loss. Another possibility is that Carolina jumps New Orleans in the NFC South. If that were to happen, Detroit would be racing with the Saints for the first wild card spot, a race that they again fall short in because of a head-to-head loss. So, the first wild card spot is not attainable for Detroit.
http://gty.im/881188862
The race for the second wild card spot is where Detroit is a player. Next up, we’ll look at the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta’s remaining schedule is as follows: vs Minnesota, vs New Orleans, @Tampa Bay, @New Orleans, and vs Carolina. That’s one of the toughest remaining schedules in the league. Currently at 7-4, Atlanta will likely be the underdog in four of these remaining games (supposing that Carolina is not resting players in the final game of the regular season). I feel comfortable saying that Atlanta will not win more than 10 games, which if they were to finish at 10 wins, Detroit would still lose the tie-breaker because of their last second loss to the Falcons earlier this season. But, 10 wins is not a lock for Atlanta. Even if Carolina rests key players in the finale, and Atlanta wins that game, the only other game in this scenario where Atlanta is favored would be the Tampa Bay game. I’ll give Atlanta two more wins, putting them at 9-7 to end the season.
http://gty.im/882720408
Next up, Seattle. Their remaining schedule: vs Philadelphia (10-1), @Jacksonville (7-4), vs LA Rams (8-3), @Dallas, vs Arizona. This schedule is not the easiest, but probably easier to maneuver than Atlanta’s. Assuming that Seattle loses to Philly and the Rams, Detroit needs to find one more loss on the Seahawks’ schedule to feel somewhat secure. Jacksonville is far from an easy out, and Elliott’s return for Dallas makes that matchup less favorable for Seattle as well. Two wins to close out the season for Seattle seems realistic, leaving them also at 9-7.
http://gty.im/883381880
Final stop: Dallas. Currently at 6-6, the Cowboys’ final four games are as follows: @New York Giants (2-9), @Oakland (5-6), vs Seattle, and @Philadelphia. They’ll beat the hapless Giants, and will likely be favored against Oakland. The bad news for Detroit’s playoff chances is that Elliott’s return is tabbed for Week 16, when Dallas hosts Seattle. The even worse news is that Philadelphia will likely have the NFC wrapped up before their finale against Dallas, meaning that there will be the possibility of star players sitting the game out for the Eagles, giving Dallas an edge. The good news for Detroit (again, assuming that Detroit gets to 10 wins) is that for Dallas to have a chance, it would mean that they won their final five games of the season. Not an easy task. I’m guessing that the Cowboys will slip up somewhere and lose a game that they shouldn’t (just not against the Giants), and also finish the regular season at 9-7.
In summary, the Lions need help. Both from themselves and other teams. But, the path is there for it to happen. For your rooting pleasures over the final five weeks of the season, remember that Detroit has to win at least 10 games, the Falcons need to lose key games against New Orleans (twice) and find another loss in their final five games. Philadelphia and the LA Rams need to beat Seattle, and the Seahawks need to find another loss in their final five. Finally, Dallas just needs to lose a game in their remaining four. Of course, Green Bay could really mess this up by staying relevant enough in the race to allow Rodgers to return. Or any of the teams we have discussed could go on a massive tear to close out the season. Or Detroit could completely falter and not get to 10 wins. Any of these are possible. Probably unlikely, but possible.
Sure, all of this might seem like a lot to ask for, but it’s realistic. Besides, we’re Lions fans… we never ask for too much, right?
