September 25, 2022

Analytics show what Dan Campbell should have done on 4th down

What a Sunday it would have been had the Detroit Lions held on for a huge road win over the Minnesota Vikings, but Dan Campbell made a decision that ended up costing the Lions the game.

Late in the fourth quarter, leading 24-21, the Lions had the ball fourth-and-4 on the Vikings’ 36-yard line and Campbell made the decision to kick a long field goal rather than punting or going for what would have been a game-winning first down.

Lions’ kicker Austin Seibert proceeded to miss the 54-yard field goal attempt badly, and the Vikings took over at their own 44-yard line.

Vikings QB Kirk Cousins when proceeded to lead the Vikings down the field for the game-winning touchdown.

Analytics show what Dan Campbell should have done on 4th down

Following the game, Detroit Lions HC Dan Campbell spoke to reporters and he admitted that he regrets his decision to kick a field goal rather than going for the first down on the Lions’ second to last possession of the game.

“For me, I freaking regret my decision there at the end. I should have gone for it there on fourth down,” Campbell said. “I told the team that, I should have gone for it.”

“I regret that decision 100 percent, I really do. I hate it. And I do feel like I cost our team,” Campbell said. “I really do, man.”

Detroit Lions Blow 4th Quarter Lead in 28-24 Loss to Minnesota Vikings

So, what do the analytics say Dan Campbell should have done?

Well, according to Seth Walder of ESPN, Campbell should have made the decision to punt the ball or even go for it on fourth down rather than kick the field goal.

“Dan Campbell has made a lot of good decisions on 4th down, but late Sunday against the Vikings he made a costly error. Campbell elected to attempt a FG while up 3 points on 4th-and-4 at the Vikings’ 36. Win probabilities from ESPN’s model based on the decision: Go: 89.6% Kick: 85.4% Punt: 90.0% So the model slightly preferred punt as the best option over going for it. But it substantially preferred either over attempting the FG. The difference between being up 3 and 6 late is very small.”

Not that we needed the numbers to validte that Dan Campbell made the wrong decision… pic.twitter.com/gITDv62ufY

— Don Drysdale (@DetroitLionsGM) September 25, 2022

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W.G. Brady is a Detroit-based journalist who has been covering the Detroit sports scene for Detroit Sports Nation for several years. He is in his early 30s and has a wealth of experience in the industry. Throughout his career, W.G. has established himself as a respected and knowledgeable journalist known for his in-depth coverage of the teams and athletes in Detroit. With a keen eye for detail and a passion for sports, W.G. has become a go-to source for fans and readers looking for the latest news and analysis on the Detroit sports scene. He has a good reputation in the sports community and is respected for his unbiased coverage of sports events. W.G. is known for his ability to uncover hidden stories and provide unique perspectives on the teams and athletes he covers. He has a good understanding of the city of Detroit and its sports culture, which he uses to inform his reporting and analysis. He continues to be a respected journalist in the Detroit sports industry.