Inside the Article:
If you have been following along with the 2023 NFL Draft process, you are well aware of Anthony Richardson, who has been soaring up draft boards ever since the conclusion of the college football season. Just about everybody believes Richardson will be a Top 10 pick in the upcoming draft, and many think he will be selected within the Top 5 picks. But, according to Football Outsiders (via ESPN), Richardson has an 80.5% chance of being a ‘bust’ in the NFL.
Key Points
- Anthony Richardson is a highly touted prospect for the 2023 NFL Draft, but Football Outsiders’ QBASE 2.0 model suggests he has an 80.5% chance of being a ‘bust’ in the NFL.
- Richardson’s college statistics and non-top-five overall Scouts Inc. grade result in a low projection by QBASE 2.0, but some teams may still view him as a franchise quarterback and draft him within the Top 5 picks.
- Personally, I agree with the evaluation of Richardson and would not select him with a Top 10 pick due to concerns about his accuracy as a passer.
Anthony Richardson has an 80.5% chance of being a ‘Bust’
ESPN has published the findings of Football Outsiders’ QBASE 2.0 model, which merges Andrew Healy’s initial QBASE model from 2015 with Jeremy Rosen and Alex Olbrecht’s functional mobility model from 2018. This updated version takes into account a quarterback’s rushing skills in addition to their adjusted college passing stats and years of experience. The adjustments factor in the caliber of both the quarterback’s teammates and opponents, and they favor quarterbacks who have shown consistent improvement over time while penalizing those who only had a single outstanding season.
Here is what the model has to say about Anthony Richardson:
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 10
Mean projection: minus-0.95 TDYAR/A
Bust: 80.5%
Adequate starter: 13.1%
Upper tier: 4.9%
Elite: 1.5%
If Young and Stroud go first and second overall (or vice versa), they will be compared forever like other pairs of quarterbacks who have gone atop the draft, from Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf to Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. But the next two quarterbacks in this year’s class will also be compared to each other going forward, especially because of their notable similarity as prospects to Bills QB Josh Allen. Heading into the 2018 draft, many statistical models, including the original QBASE, did not like Allen because of his subpar college production. But Allen’s arm strength, mobility and high ceiling made him into a star in the NFL.
Richardson resembles that archetype, too, except he may be a more extreme version. He completed just 53.8% of his passes in his one year as a college starter and threw 17 touchdowns to 9 interceptions, numbers that would ordinarily not get a prospect drafted in the first round. Yet his arm strength is elite, and he rushed for a Cam Newton-esque 6.3 yards per attempt (though Newton had much better passing numbers in his one year starting for Auburn).
Given Richardson’s college statistics and non-top-five overall Scouts Inc. grade, QBASE 2.0’s projection for him is low. But if he is drafted fourth overall, it will improve to minus-0.75. And regardless, there will be teams that think they can develop him into a franchise quarterback.
Bottom Line: Is this too harsh for Anthony Richardson?
Personally, I do not think this evaluation is harsh at all as I have made myself very clear that there is no way that I would select Richardson with a Top 10 pick. A QB that throws the ball really far but is inaccurate just does not do it for me. Could he develop into a franchise QB? Anything is possible. But is it likely? I say no.