The Detroit Lions no longer have to wonder which running back would set the next NFL contract benchmark.
Bijan Robinson got there first.
The Atlanta Falcons reportedly agreed to a three-year, $66.75 million ($51 million guaranteed) extension with Robinson, with another $8.25 million available through incentives. The new money averages $22.25 million per season, while Robinson can earn as much as $25 million annually through the extension.
For Brad Holmes and the Lions, the Jahmyr Gibbs negotiation just became much clearer.
Robinson Establishes Gibbs’ Contract Floor
Robinson and Gibbs have been linked since the 2023 NFL Draft. Atlanta selected Robinson eighth overall, while Detroit took Gibbs four picks later.
Both quickly became elite offensive weapons. Both entered the summer eligible for extensions after their teams exercised fifth-year options. Atlanta has now made its move. The Falcons had already secured Robinson through 2027 after picking up his option earlier this offseason.
Gibbs remains under Detroit’s control through 2027 as well. He is scheduled to carry a cap hit of approximately $5.68 million in 2026, followed by a fully guaranteed $14.293 million fifth-year option in 2027.
That team control does not make the Robinson contract irrelevant.
It gives Gibbs’ representatives a direct comparison.
Robinson received $22.25 million annually in new money. Gibbs can reasonably argue that Detroit should meet or surpass that number.
Jahmyr Gibbs Has a Powerful Case
Gibbs has missed the Lions’ first five training camp practices while remaining present at the facility, attending meetings and watching portions of practice. He has described his return timetable by saying, “Only time will tell,” while denying that he specifically needs a new contract before practicing again.
Through three seasons, Gibbs has produced 5,029 yards from scrimmage and 49 touchdowns in 49 games. He has also earned three Pro Bowl selections and is preparing to take over as Detroit’s full-time lead back.
The Lions are not negotiating with a traditional running back.
Gibbs is a runner, receiver and explosive-play creator capable of changing a game with one touch. Detroit drafted him 12th overall because Holmes believed his value stretched beyond the normal limits of the position.
Now the contract will need to reflect that belief.
Detroit Should Move Quickly
The Robinson extension gives the Lions a framework.
A four-year offer averaging between $22.5 million and $23 million per season would make Gibbs the highest-paid running back in new-money value while only slightly surpassing Atlanta’s deal.
Detroit can separate itself through guarantees, signing bonus money and favorable cash flow during the first three seasons.
The structure matters. So does timing.
The longer Gibbs stays off the practice field, the more attention the situation receives. Detroit is installing an offense that intends to feature him more heavily than ever. Every missed padded practice takes away another opportunity to build timing, conditioning and comfort in that expanded role.
Holmes has publicly identified Gibbs, Sam LaPorta and Brian Branch as core members of the 2023 draft class the Lions want to retain.
Atlanta just removed the guesswork.
Bottom Line
Bijan Robinson’s three-year, $66.75 million extension has established the number Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions must now address.
Gibbs’ starting point should be at least $22.25 million per season. Becoming the NFL’s highest-paid running back will likely require Detroit to reach $22.5 million or $23 million annually, with strong guarantees attached.
The Lions still possess contractual leverage through 2027. Gibbs has leverage of his own because Detroit plans to build a major portion of its offense around him.
Brad Holmes knows the market now.
It is time to close the deal.
