The Detroit Lions won the NFC North in 2023 and again in 2024. Then came the fall. Detroit finished 9-8 in 2025, missed the playoffs and landed in last place in the division. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell thinks that gap closes in a hurry.
The schedule is part of why. Barnwell notes that Detroit projects to play the league’s second-easiest slate of opponents in 2026, per ESPN’s FPI. So is there a world where the Lions take the NFC North for the third time in four seasons?
Bill Barnwell Predicts the Detroit Lions Will Win the NFC North
Barnwell picked his full playoff field for the season, and he has Detroit winning the division for the third time in four years. He also has the entire rest of the NFC North watching January from home. The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears miss, and so do the Minnesota Vikings, who lost out on the last spot in the conference to the Lions.
“My final playoff spot came down to a battle between the Lions and Vikings in the NFC North. There are reasons to be optimistic about both teams, of course. Detroit was within one half of making the Super Bowl in 2023 and was the top seed in the conference in 2024 before some bad luck cost it a playoff spot in 2025,” Barnwell wrote.
Detroit and Minnesota have been here before. The two met in Week 18 of the 2024 season with the division on the line. It would not be a surprise if they were the two best teams in the NFC North again this season.
The Lions Defense Should Be Healthier, In Theory
Barnwell’s case leans on health, and he hedges it himself.
“The Lions should, at least in theory, be healthier on defense than they were in 2024 and 2025, when they ranked last in adjusted games lost in back-to-back campaigns. Admittedly, that starts with Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph opening the year on the physically unable to perform list, so things aren’t off to a great start, but the rest of the defense is healthier than it was a year ago. The Vikings, meanwhile, should be more banged-up by the end of 2026 after ranking fifth and fourth in AGL over the prior two seasons, respectively, even if they’re healthier than the Lions to open the season,” Barnwell wrote.
That is the bet in one sentence. Detroit starts the year without both starting safeties, and Barnwell is still picking the Lions because he expects the rest of the roster to hold up over 17 games in a way it has not in two years.
What Has to Go Right for Detroit
If the defense gets healthy and plays to its talent, this offense is good enough to push the Lions past 13 wins. A 13-4 season is on the table with this roster, and if Detroit gets there, Dan Campbell belongs in the coach of the year conversation. The first four games, with Branch and Joseph on the shelf, will say a lot about whether Barnwell called it.
