The 2025 Detroit Lions season will be remembered as one of the most frustrating in recent memory. The offense regressed, the defense faded down the stretch, injuries mounted, and now there is another factor that helps explain the disappointment: measurable bad luck.
NFL football operations data scientist Tom Bliss compiled league-wide “luck-based” win probability metrics across situations in which teams have limited control. The four tracked categories include: (Via NFL Operations)
- Dropped Interception (dropped by opponent): When an opponent drops an interception, you get lucky. We assume that the intercepting team keeps possession at the spot of the drop.
- Dropped Pass (dropped by opponent): When an opponent drops a pass, you get lucky. We assume the offense would gain yards after catch using the Next Gen Stats Expected YAC model.
- Field Goals and Extra Points (attempted by opponent): When an opponent misses a kick, you get lucky, and when your opponent makes a kick, you get unlucky. Field goal make probabilities are based on the Next Gen Stats Field Goal Probability model.
- Fumble Recoveries (by either team): When a team recovers a fumble, there’s a chance the luck of the bounce was involved. Fumble recovery probabilities are based on observed recovery percentages by when the fumble occurred (i.e., after a catch, during a rush, fumbled snap, muffed punt).
While there is always some overlap between luck and execution, these are generally chaotic, high-variance moments. In 2025, they consistently broke against Detroit.
Here is an example of a bad luck play the Lions had back in 2021, and how it was used for these metrics:
At the end of the Lions’ Week 3 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens back in 2021, we watched Justin Tucker drill a 66-yard field goal as time expired, the longest made kick in NFL history at that time. From a Detroit perspective, that moment stung even more because, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Tucker had only a 10% chance of making that kick. Had he missed, we would have walked off the field with a victory at Ford Field. Instead, that near-impossible make wiped out roughly 90% of our expected win probability (or 0.90 wins), essentially costing us almost a full win in one heartbreaking swing.
Throwback to when Justin Tucker kicked a game winning 66 yard field goal against the Lions pic.twitter.com/iKMAzBrhWe
— ☦︎︎ LJ Murray ☦︎︎ (@kryMP3) July 26, 2024
Detroit Posted Negative Results in Every Luck Category
The Lions finished with one of the three worst total luck scores in the NFL and recorded negative outcomes in all four categories measured.
Detroit Lions — 2025 “Luck Impact” Breakdown
| Luck Category | Net Win Probability Impact |
|---|---|
| Dropped Interceptions (by opponent) | -7.4% |
| Dropped Passes (by opponent) | -24.2% |
| Opponent Field Goals & Extra Points | -15.5% |
| Fumble Recoveries (either team) | -52.8% |
| Total Luck Impact | -99.9% |
The biggest swing came in fumble-recovery situations. Detroit encountered 24 total fumbles (both forced and committed) and recovered only nine of them.
Taken together, these events produced a nearly season-long drag on Detroit’s win probability.
Other Unlucky Teams Overcame Adversity — the Lions Did Not
Interestingly, among the 10 “most unlucky” teams identified in the study, four have either clinched a playoff berth or remain alive heading into Week 18. That reinforces an important truth: while luck matters, successful teams still find ways to overcome it.
Detroit did not do that consistently enough.
Luck Was Not the Only Problem — But It Made the Fall Harder
The Lions’ struggles cannot be pinned solely on misfortune. Turnovers, defensive breakdowns, inefficiency in key moments, and personnel challenges all played meaningful roles in the team’s regression.
However, the data does help explain why so many crucial plays and games seemed to tilt the wrong way. In 2025, unfavorable bounces, missed opportunities, and rare probability outcomes compounded the team’s performance issues.
The challenge for 2026 is straightforward: improve execution, reduce volatility, and turn high-leverage moments back in Detroit’s favor. The best teams do not wait for luck to swing. They create the conditions for it.
