What the Detroit Lions Stand to Gain by Losing to the Bears in Week 18

If you had told me back in September that I’d be writing this article on the day after Christmas, I would’ve called you crazy. The Detroit Lions were supposed to be contenders, a team pushing deep into January, not a team eliminated from playoff contention before Week 18. Yet here we are.

And even though it feels like the season is already over, technically…it’s not. One game remains on the schedule: a Week 18 trip to Chicago to take on the Bears, and former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, no less. Normally, ending the year with a win over a division rival would feel like a small consolation prize. But in this case? Winning might actually hurt the Lions more than losing.

Yeah. We’re really having that conversation.

Why Losing Could Help Detroit More Than Winning

Let’s start with the obvious football business reality: a loss would likely land the Lions a higher draft pick. That alone carries value for a team that suddenly has more questions than answers heading into 2026.

But the bigger incentive runs deeper than draft positioning, it’s about the schedule.

Right now, the Lions sit in fourth place in the NFC North. If the season ended today, they would play a fourth-place schedule in 2026, which would line them up against the:

• New York Giants
• Tennessee Titans
• Arizona Cardinals

In contrast, if the Lions were to finish third in the NFC North, their 2026 schedule shifts to include:

• Indianapolis Colts
• Washington Commanders
• Los Angeles Rams (This could change depending on results)

That’s a meaningful difference, not just in competitiveness, but in the degree of difficulty for a team trying to rebound, rebuild confidence, and reset direction.

If Detroit loses to Chicago in Week 18, they are guaranteed that last-place schedule.
If they win, and the Packers beat the Vikings, the Lions move to a third-place slate instead.

Suddenly, beating the Bears doesn’t look quite as beneficial.

The Case for Sitting the Stars

With all that considered, it would be wise, strategically, not emotionally, for Dan Campbell to give his key players Week 18 off.

That means:

• Jared Goff
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Jameson Williams

And anyone even remotely banged up:

• Penei Sewell
• Taylor Decker
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Alim McNeill

There is zero competitive upside in risking injury for a game that could actively hurt Detroit’s outlook for next season.

Plenty of teams across the league make similar choices when the stakes disappear. Protect your roster. Protect your future. Play the kids. Evaluate depth pieces. Live to fight another year.

But This Is Dan Campbell We’re Talking About

Here’s the catch:

Dan Campbell is not wired to wave the white flag.

He’s not the type to mail in a game, even if the analytics, the future schedule, and the draft board all say it might be the smart move. His entire identity as a head coach is rooted in competing until the last whistle.

And truthfully? That’s a big part of why Detroit loves him.

But sometimes the smartest decision isn’t the toughest one, it’s the most strategic one.

The Bottom Line

The Lions don’t need “momentum” from a meaningless Week 18 win. They need:

• a softer schedule in 2026
• a better draft slot
• a healthier roster heading into the offseason

Losing to the Bears, as strange as it sounds, may end up giving Detroit its best chance to bounce back stronger next year.

And if that’s the reality of where the Lions are today…well, that tells the real story of how far this season drifted from the one we thought we were getting in September.