Inside the Article:
In Week 18, the Detroit Lions will end their season on Sunday Night against their division rivals, the Green Bay Packers. Both teams are coming off blowout wins over divisional rivals as they hunt for the final playoff spot. To get that spot, the Packers need to pull off the victory; for the Lions, they will need to win and hope the Seahawks lose earlier in the day. Even if the Seahawks don’t lose, expect the Lions to give this game their all as they look to play spoiler against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Let’s go inside the numbers for the crucial game.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers: Offense vs. Defense
Detroit’s Pass Offense vs Green Bay’s Pass Defense
Green Bay pass defenses allow some of the fewest in the entire NFL. They only surrender 195 yards per game putting them 4th least in the NFL. However, their pass defense is not as good as that number suggests. For yards per attempt, the Packers rank 28th in the entire NFL with opponents averaging seven yards per attempt against them. They also are 1st in the NFL for the fewest pass attempts per game for the opponent (27). So in reality, they give up so few yards because teams throw the fewest number of passes when facing the Packers.
The Packers also don’t have great sack numbers. Without Rashan Gary for most of the year, the Packers only average 2.1 sacks per game which ranks 24th in the league. However, the Packers’ sack percentage moves to 14th when factoring in pass attempts. Even with an average pass rush, the Packers may struggle against the Lions’ best pass protection unit in the NFL.
Thanks to the Lions’ offensive line, and the play of Jared Goff, they pass the ball better than most teams in the league. DVOA’s 5th-ranked passing attack moves the ball efficiently and with ease as they are top eight in both passing yards and yards per attempt. The unit is top 10 in nearly every statistic as Goff and Ben Johnson have been cooking all year.
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers: Advantage Detroit’s Pas Offense
Detroit’s Run Offense vs Green Bay’s Run Defense
Teams don’t pass often against Green Bay because they struggle against the run. Teams are able to pick up five yards a carry against Green Bay and rush for 142 yards a game. Both of those rank bottom seven in the NFL. DVOA ranks them even lower as they rank 31st in rush defense when factoring in the strength of schedule. Teams can be as balanced as they want when facing the poor Packers’ defense.
The Lions’ had struggled leading up to the Bears game before exploding against the Bears for 265 yards on 4.6 yards a carry. Even with the struggles, the Lions are slightly above league average ranking 15th in yards per carry, 11th in yards per game, and 15th in DVOA. Despite those numbers, they have proven the run game has incredible upside especially if D’Andre Swift plays up to potential.
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers: Advantage Detroit’s Run Offense
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers: Defense vs. Offense
Detroit’s Pass Defense vs Green Bay’s Pass Offense
With Rodgers at the helm, the Packers have a dangerous passing game. Christian Watson’s size and speed elevated this group to a new level. Despite the upside, the Packers have been inconsistent in throwing the ball. They only rank 17th in yards per game on the 19th best in yards per attempt. DVOA agrees with those rough rankings as they rank 15th in passing offense. Even with those lukewarm numbers, Rodgers will always be a threat, especially with the way Watson has been playing.
The Packers have done a good job protecting Rodgers. With their offensive line and Rodger’s mobility, teams bring down Rodgers only 1.8 times per game good for 8th in the league. The Lions’ pass rush is coming off a seven sack performance, but the Packers will prove much more challenging.
The Lions’ pass defense has been improving thanks to the rush, but they will rank 30th in yards given up and 31st in yards per attempt. They have moved up in sacks and pressure which has helped the secondary out big time. But, if they don’t get pressure, they can give up some big days.
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers: Advantage Green Bay’s Pass Offense
Detroit’s Run Defense vs Green Bay’s Run Offense
Even with Aaron Rodgers, the Packers love to run the ball with their two-headed monster in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. This unit ranks 3rd in DVOA, picking up 127 yards per game (12th) and 4.7 yards per attempt (9th). The raw numbers don’t look great, but they have been productive against some of the best-rushing defenses.
The Lions have not been great against the run. After a strong stretch, the Lions came crashing down to Earth against Carolina and struggled with Justin Fields early last week. The team ranks even lower than Green Bay’s poor defense in every statistical category outside of DVOA. They have given up some huge gains like Carolina, and they have shut down the likes of Saquon Barkley and Dalvin Cook.
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers: Advantage Green Bay’s Run Offense
Game Outlook
In a game of this magnitude, it almost makes sense to throw out the numbers. Entering Sunday, nothing else will matter for either team as they aim to make the playoffs or at least play spoiler. If the numbers do show anything, both teams will struggle to defend the run, and in the cold, it could make a big difference. Whichever team can contain the opponent’s two-headed rushing attack should be in the driver’s seat for the victory. On paper, this game looks like an even matchup that should give both teams a good chance to get the victory.
Team rankings from Team Rankings.com
