Just prior to the start of the 2022 season, the Detroit Tigers had the wind taken out of their sail a bit when news broke that rookie OF Riley Greene was going to miss extended time with a broken foot.
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Prior to Wednesday’s doubleheader against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Tigers manager A.J. Hinch spoke to the media and gave an update on Greene.
Though Hinch did not give an exact date for when Greene will be back doing baseball activities, he did say he will not be anytime soon.
“It’s not going to be May,” Hinch said. “We’ll continue to have him heal.”
Riley Greene is out of a boot but not yet doing baseball activities.
A.J. Hinch said on 97.1 this morning: "It’s not going to be May. We’ll continue to have him heal." https://t.co/HRG2J6MUl7
— Cody Stavenhagen (@CodyStavenhagen) May 4, 2022
MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 5/4/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let’s take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you’re seeing the most updated information.
Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies -1.5 (+125): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model projects the Philadelphia Phillies to top the Texas Rangers by a comfortable margin, creating value in taking Philly on the runline.
Philadelphia should have a huge advantage on the mound as they have Zack Wheeler going against Martin Perez.
Wheeler has definitely stumbled out of the gates in 2022, sporting a meager 21.4% strikeout rate and 8.2% swinging-strike rate. There are legit reasons to be concerned, too, as his average fastball velocity is down 1.8 MPH compared to last year.
But with all that said, he’s still got a 3.98 SIERA due in large part to an excellent 16.4% hard-hit rate, and Wheeler had a 29.1% strikeout rate last year over a much larger sample (213 1/3 frames). Facing a Texas offense that is 22nd in wOBA, Wheeler should have success today.
Perez is sort of the opposite of Wheeler. He’s been a meh lefty for a while, but he’s off to a good start this season, holding a 3.52 SIERA. But we’re likely looking at some small-sample noise with Martin’s fast start, and he’s still punching out only 19.3% of hitters during this good stretch. Perez also gave up 1.50 dingers per nine last year, something that isn’t going to help him at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.
We project Philly to win by a score of 5.09-3.61, and we think they cover the runline 51.1% of the time. You can get it at an appealing price of +125, and we rate it as a two-star bet.
