Betting on the Detroit Lions?
They might not be a playoff team yet but there are some great betting opportunities to take advantage of.
Off to a 1-3 start, another bleak outcome appears ahead for the Lions but is there a Honolulu blue and silver lining to the black cloud forming over the team?
The Lions are also 1-3 against the spread this season but you’ve got to give them marks for consistency. Last season, Detroit went 7-9 straight up and 7-9 against the spread.
Let’s narrow the focus for a moment and consider Detroit’s Week Five showdown at Ford Field with the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles. At home, the Lions are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games. Against the Eagles, they are 3-6 against the spread and 2-7 straight in their last nine meetings.
That doesn’t bode well for a favorable Detroit outcome. But scratch below that aforementioned surface, and there is an opportunity to make hay with the Lions.
Detroit is 2-2 in the over/under after posting a winning 9-7 mark in the over/under in 2015, including 6-2 at home. The total has gone over in six of the Lions’ last eight home games.
One thing we do know about the Lions offense is that they have shown the ability to put points on the board, 39 in Week One at Indianapolis and 27 during their Week Three loss at Green Bay.
Detroit’s total offense (376 yards per game) and passing offense (283.7 yards per game) are both ahead of the NFL averages (359.9, 250.8). So with the over/under set at 46, the play here this week is to bet the over. But wait, there’s more evidence to support such thinking. The last five times the Eagles have met the Lions, the over is 5-0.
Everyone loves a winner and following trends and the 3-0 Eagles are certainly trending right now, explaining why they are minus-three away at Ford Field, up from an opening line of minus-one.
Why should you even consider a wager on the Lions in this game?
For starters, let’s not forget who the defensive coordinator is for the Eagles – none other than former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz. Remember how the Buffalo Bills carried Schwartz, then their defensive coordinator off the field on their shoulders after beating the Lions at Ford Field in 2014?
If the Lions remember that, perhaps they come up big and upset the Eagles to prevent a repeat occurrence.
There’s also the fact that Philadelphia is 1-3 against the spread in its last four against Detroit and coming off a bye week the Eagles could prove rusty and slow out of the gate. Then again, Detroit is 2-9 against the spread in its last 11 games played in the month of October.
Perhaps the best bet when it comes to the Lions is to forget the big picture story of wins and losses and focus on personal victories for Detroit players in the form of prop bets being offered by Bovada.
Start with quarterback Matthew Stafford. You should be all over the over. The over/under on passing yards for Stafford is 4400. He’s currently on pace for 4,792 yards. Detroit has trouble running the ball, further reinforcing the over bet.
Stafford is also on pace for 28 touchdown passes (over/under is 27.5) and 16 interceptions (over/under is 13.5).
The over/under on receiving yards for Marvin Jones is 850. Considering he’s already for 428 yards, this one’s a gift. He’s already become Stafford’s main target and has two TD catches. His over/under in that department is five. Another gift.
At the other end of the scale, avoid falling in love with Ziggy Ansah. The Detroit defensive lineman grabbed 14.5 sacks last season but blocking him is now the focal point every team’s scheme. He has two sacks through four games and seems unlikely to top his over/under of 10.5.
The over/under on Lions wins this season is seven, the same number of games that they won last season when they started 1-7. Sorry folks. Gotta take the under here. The Lions will be hard-pressed to go 6-6 the rest of the way.
In other words, stick to betting props on Stafford and Jones. They’re the Honolulu blue and silver lining that we’re delighted to report.