The Detroit Lions face off against the Green Bay Packers in their first — and only — primetime appearance of the season.
Market-making sportsbook Circa opened the Lions as 10.5-point underdogs with the total set at 49. As of Monday afternoon, bettors could get the Lions +12 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Detroit covered against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1 as 9.5-point home dogs.
Since 2019 — Matt LaFleur’s first year as Green Bay’s head coach — the Packers are 6-0 straight-up and against-the-spread following a loss. However, they’ve failed to cover on the three occasions they’ve laid double-digit points over the same span.
Eyes On The Offenses
Both sides are dealing with significant injuries. The Lions lost 2020 first-round cornerback Jeffrey Okudah (Achilles) while the Packers placed linebacker Za’Darius Smith (back) on IR. Okudah’s absence is bad news for whomever is tasked with containing the Aaron Rodgers–Davante Adams connection.
The Lions generated 430 yards of total offense last week, fifth most in the NFL, so don’t underestimate the stress they can put on a diminished Packers defense. Placing a bet on the Lions to win outright — +460 at FanDuel Sportsbook — may go against conventional wisdom. However, if you believe in their ability to move the ball offensively, bettors can find the total at 48.5 at a handful of shops including FanDuel, Caesars, and Pointsbet.
Tonight is only the second game of the Dan Campbell era in Detroit, so there is a lot for us left to learn about them. One message Campbell effectively communicated this offseason, however, was his team wouldn’t lie down. This type of narrative isn’t unique, but we saw the Lions demonstrate resilience after being punched in the mouth in the first half against the 49ers in Week 1.
The Packers will certainly want to erase the bitter aftertaste of their humiliating 38-3 Week 1 defeat. We can expect Rodgers and Co. to find their groove offensively. The Packers have scored fewer than 10 points only twice under LaFleur’s watch. Can the Lions exploit the Packers’ defensive holes though?
Detroit has quality on the line and in the skill groups, but lack household names. Tight end T.J. Hockenson led the team with 97 receiving yards and eight receptions. Hockenson isn’t mentioned alongside the likes of George Kittle or Travis Kelce — yet — but he has the talent to join the elite ranks at the position. Running backs D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams reeled in eight receptions apiece as well. The Lions will rely heavily on them tonight and moving forward.
There is some value at shops dealing the Lions at +12. Prospective bettors may also want to consider the OVER at 48.5. Both offenses have the talent to put points on the board against diminished defensive units.