Let’s face facts. This season has been nothing short of completely atrocious for the Red Wings. As of this writing, they have won only 16 of the 69 games they have played, while allowing a league worst 258 goals (the next worst is 235, a difference of 23 goals), scored a league worst 138 (the next worst is 172, a difference of 34 goals), and their goal differential…. get ready for this… is a league worst -120 (the next worst is -48).
Steve Yzerman now has the unenviable task of taking a roster that is posted these numbers, and turning the product into something that is worthwhile. This will most certainly not be an easy task, nor will it happen overnight. These are the dog days of the rebuild, but thankfully, it can’t get much worse than it is now!
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Despite this, there is plenty of reason to be hopeful for the future. That future will include multiple high draft picks (yes, they’ll be a bad team for the next couple of years), and plenty of cap space.
First and foremost, let’s look at what has the most potential to get this rebuild heading in the right direction: the 2020 NHL Draft. All eyes are on the prize, which will surely be Alexis Lafreniere, the prolific scorer from the QMJHL. In 51 games with Rimouski Oceanic, the 18 year old has posted 35 goals and 74 assists, for a total of 109 points. He is and consistently has been the projected number one overall pick, and with their dead last finish in the league, the Red Wings will have an 18.5% chance of landing that pick in the draft lottery. Though simple statistics tell us that they will likely not end up drafting first overall, there is no cause for concern. Sure, it’d be great to have Lafreniere in Detroit, but there are numerous players in the top five that could change the landscape of a franchise (remember, the team that finishes last overall cannot drop out of the top four spots in the draft).
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All things considered with this draft, the Red Wings have picked the perfect time to be so terrible. The deep class also includes center Tim Stuetzle, center Quinton Byfield, defenseman Jamie Drysdale, and center Marco Rossi, all of whom are projected top five picks at this point. Any one of those players will be an incredible add for this team.
The thing about highly-projected draft picks is that no matter the level of hype, they take time to adjust to the NHL. For example, look at Jack Hughes, the unrivaled number one overall pick in 2019. Through the first 60 games of his NHL career, he has only seven goals and 14 assists. No matter who Detroit gets with their first pick, you can safely assume that it’s going to take them some time to reach their potential.
Not to be forgotten, the team will also have a LOT of salary cap room. After this season, eight players will become unrestricted free agents, and 12 will become restricted free agents. Some will be resigned, but a fair portion will also likely leave the organization. Also, consider that the salary cap has been rumored to be rising to as high as $88.5 million next season. Sure, some of the cap room they will have will be used to re-sign some current players, and perhaps a veteran free agent or two, but they will have plenty of room leftover. This cap room will leave them with the ability to take on a bad contract or two via trade in exchange draft picks if they would choose to go down that route.
Also not to be forgotten is the fact that the kids will be coming up to Detroit, as well. Kids such as former first round picks Joe Veleno, Evgeni Svechnikov, Moritz Seider, and Dennis Cholowski. As this season begins to point towards the finish, Yzerman and the rest of the staff will have to decide if they want those players to get a taste of the MHL this season, or if they see it as more valuable to leave them in Grand Rapids as the Griffins push towards the playoffs.
At the end of the day, this process is really only just beginning. Although the team will continue to struggle overall for the foreseeable future, the hope is that they can at least begin the process of improvement. The way it looks right now, my best guess is that the team is three years from competing for a playoff berth, and even longer until they are a legitimate cup contender. Just remember: it’s going to take time.
