Losers of four straight – by an average of 12 points per game – the Detroit Pistons have sunk 4.5 games out of a playoff spot as of Jan. 30th.
With Blake Griffin, Luke Kennard, Khyri Thomas sidelined, the hope for a mid-season turnaround is not high.
The Standings
The Eastern Conference Standings has four distinct tiers.
The Milwaukee Bucks are alone in Tier 1, eight games clear of the field.
Tier 2 consists of:
- #2 Toronto Raptors: 8.0 games back
- #3 Miami Heat: 9.0 GB
- #4 Boston Celtics: 9.5 GB
- #5 Indiana Pacers: 10.5 GB
- #6 Philadelphia 76ers: 10.5 GB
Tier 3 consists of:
- #7 Orlando Magic: 20.5 GB
- #8 Brooklyn Nets: 20.5 GB
- #9 Chicago Bulls: 23.5 GB
- #10 Detroit Pistons: 25.0 GB
- #11 Charlotte Hornets: 25.0 GB
- #12 Washington Wizards: 25.5 GB
And finally Tier 4 consists of:
- #13 Cleveland Cavaliers: 28.5 GB
- #14 New York Knicks: 29.0 GB
- #15 Atlanta Hawks: 29.5 GB
The Tier 2 teams have effectively already booked their playoff tickets, barring major injuries. That leaves the six teams in Tier 3 fighting for two playoff spots, with the Magic and Nets holding a pretty significant head-start.
What Do the Odds Say?
The Eastern Conference playoff odds tracker at sportsbettingdime.com is not kind to the Pistons, who are currently +700 longshots to make the eight-team field. The implied probability of +700 odds is just 12.5%.
Their odds are shorter than the Hornets (+1400) and Wizards (+1000), but considerably longer than the Magic (-450), Nets (-300), and Bulls (+290).
And 12.5% may be optimistic. The playoff predictor at ESPN gives Detroit just a 5.1% chance. The forecast at fivethirtyeight.com gives the Pistons less than 1%.
Those site’s calculations are based on rosters as currently constructed. If Ed Stefanski made a big move at the deadline to strengthen the team, their chances would go up. But it’s hard to see their chances going up enough to justify divesting the team of good long-term assets in order to make a 2020 playoff push.
Also working against the Pistons is their remaining strength of schedule. Detroit’s remaining schedule is the fourth-toughest in the entire NBA and the hardest in the East. The Magic have the second-easiest in the league and the Nets’ schedule is a little easier than average.
Should the Pistons Make a Playoff Push or Be Sellers as the Deadline?
If Stefanski can get moderate trade value for assets like Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson, he’s pretty much obligated to move them. The 2019-20 Pistons are considerably worse than the 2018-19 team that snuck into the #8 seed in a weaker conference – and then lost in four to the Bucks. Their winning percentage is 15.3% lower and their point differential is nearly two points-per-game worse (-0.3 vs -2.2).
The problem is that would-be trade partners are showing little interest in them. The best trade-chip the team has, much to fans dismay, is rejuvenated former NBA MVP, Derrick Rose. As bleak as the on-court product would get if Rose was moved, putting up with a couple of months of unwatchable basketball may be worth the return.
