From NFC top seed in 2024 to nine wins and a January sitting on the couch in 2025. That’s the brutal summary of what happened to the Detroit Lions last season. A team that half the league considered a genuine Lombardi favorite 12 months ago capitulated entirely and missed the playoffs altogether. What they need now is for 2026 to actually mean something.
Motor City’s finest is no longer considered a genuine Super Bowl contender by online betting sites. Instead, the latest odds from 7signs online sportsbook position them as a +2000 outsider, level with the likes of the Houston Texans and the San Francisco 49ers. If Jared Goff can continue his monstrous numbers from last season and Isiah Pacheco hits the ground running, that price could well be worth a long-shot punt.
But if the Lions are to upset the odds next term, they will need to thrive both in the NFC North and outside of it. Their division is arguably the most stacked in the NFL, with each of the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and Minnesota Vikings all capable of topping the quartet. Outside of those three, however, Detroit’s schedule looks somewhat friendly. Here are their biggest tests.
vs. Buffalo Bills — Week 2
What does a Lions team with outside Super Bowl ambitions need to prove in Week Two against Josh Allen and a resurgent Bills roster operating under a first-time head coach? Everything.
The Bills went 12-5 in 2025, made the playoffs for the seventh straight season, beat Jacksonville in the Wild Card, and then lost a heartbreaker to the Broncos in overtime in the Divisional Round — a result that cost Sean McDermott his job and launched offensive coordinator Joe Brady into the hot seat on a five-year deal.
The foundation continues to run through Josh Allen, as it always does. Bradley Chubb joins an edge-rush group that already causes matchup nightmares, DJ Moore steps in as the nominal number one receiver, and Keon Coleman’s role remains the genuine question in the passing game. James Cook is the X-factor on the ground — Buffalo went 8-1 last season when he topped 100 rushing yards.
Clashes between the Lions and the Bills always deliver fireworks. In December 2024, the pair played out a 90-point thriller with Buffalo eventually triumphing 48-42, despite a whopping 494 yards from Goff. That win took the Highmark outfit’s streak of wins against Detroit to five, and if it is to come to an end in Week 2, Dan Campbell’s men must keep Allen in the pocket, force contested throws, and refuse to let him freelance into open grass. Slight edge Buffalo — but the upset is absolutely on the table.
vs. New England Patriots — Week 10
The last time these franchises met was in October 2022, a 29-0 New England shutout in Foxborough that belongs to a different football universe for both teams. Detroit was still building then. New England was still Belichick’s operation. Neither of those things is true anymore.
The Patriots went 14-3 in 2025, won the AFC Championship, and reached Super Bowl LX — where the Seahawks beat them 29-13 in a game that got away from Drake Maye at the worst possible moment. The reversal from a 4-13 2024 season was one of the most extraordinary single-year flips in recent NFL history, built almost entirely on Maye’s sophomore explosion: a 72.0 completion percentage (highest in Patriots history and sixth-best all time), 4,394 yards, and 31 touchdowns.
He became just the eighth quarterback ever to reach 70-plus completion percentage, 4,000-plus yards, and 30-plus touchdowns in the same season, and he led the entire league in EPA on deep attempts — with Stefon Diggs as the trusted weapon down the field. Mike Vrabel doesn’t lose his team’s edge quickly. This is a genuine contender.
Is there a more representative test of where Detroit’s ceiling actually sits than a Week Ten date against the team that reached the Super Bowl just twelve months ago? The game plan writes itself: get Aiden Hutchinson free early, test Maye’s poise, and probe the soft spots that exposed him against the league’s best defense in Santa Clara. New England struggled to sustain their regular-season efficiency as the playoff pressure compounded — Maye was sacked six times and threw three turnovers in the Super Bowl loss. Detroit’s pass rush is built for exactly this kind of chess match. Call this a coin flip with a slight edge to New England.
vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Week 11
Baker Mayfield said his extension talks with Tampa Bay were “not anywhere close.” Sit with that. A quarterback heading into a hostile road environment in Week Eleven, not knowing if he’ll be with the organization next year, leading a receiving corps still grieving the departure of Mike Evans to San Francisco and the retirement of Lavonte David. Zac Robinson installs a new offensive system. Chris Godwin becomes the number-one receiver by necessity. Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, and Bucky Irving are being asked to fill a franchise icon’s shoes. The Buccaneers were 6-2 at midseason with Mayfield drawing MVP chatter — then collapsed, dropping six of their final seven, including three straight divisional losses.
Detroit has the tactical edge and the psychological one. The Lions beat Tampa 24-9 in October 2025. Before that, they sent the Buccaneers home in the 2023 Divisional Round — 31-23, Gibbs’ 31-yard touchdown run, and Derrick Barnes’ interception of Mayfield on the final drive. Ford Field is not a friendly place for Baker. Winfield Jr. and Vita Vea keep Tampa dangerous defensively, but this is a Lions team that wins at the line of scrimmage against a unit assembled largely in the offseason.
Establish the run early, put Mayfield in third-and-longs, and let Hutchinson do the rest. Detroit wins this one.
