During the 2025-26 NHL season, the Detroit Red Wings finished with a 41-31-10 record and 92 points, sixth in the Atlantic Division. Detroit has now missed the playoffs in each of the last 10 seasons, the longest active drought in the league. With Dylan Larkin sidelined to open training camp with an upper-body injury he picked up in the gym, do the Red Wings playoff odds go up or down?
The Athletic Puts Red Wings Playoff Odds at 26 Percent
Shayna Goldman, Sean Gentille and Harman Dayal of The Athletic ran the Red Wings’ season with and without Larkin. If Larkin is ready for the first game of the season and plays the full year, their model projects Detroit at 87.5 points and gives the team only a 26% chance to reach the postseason. Detroit also carries a 0.8% chance to win the Stanley Cup.
“Between the playoff staples and up-and-coming teams, the Atlantic Division has only become more competitive. The Red Wings, on the other hand, are stuck in purgatory.
Blame the Larkin situation, the slowly unfolding front-office changes, or just years of complacency in Detroit. Whatever the cause, the result will likely be more of the same because chances are, the Red Wings’ playoff drought extends another year.
Even if Larkin sticks around, this team projects to take a small step back to the 88-point range. While that was almost enough to make the playoffs in the West last year, it won’t be in the East. So, barring some miraculous swing or serious internal growth, it’s likely to be another disappointing season for the Red Wings.”
Detroit is going to need other players to step up this season. Right now the Red Wings are caught in the middle: not good enough to be a playoff team, and not bad enough to land a top-five selection in the 2027 NHL Draft.
Detroit’s Odds Get Worse Without Larkin
They have a worse chance to make the playoffs without Larkin than they do with him. Detroit projects to 82.2 points without him and only a 14% chance to make the postseason. The Red Wings have a 0.4% chance to win the Stanley Cup without him.
Goldman, Gentille and Dayal said,
“In some alternate universe, Larkin’s presence at Red Wings training camp would’ve been treated as a positive development, or at least a welcomed exhale. What Red Wings fans seem to have gotten, though, is a detour on their route to disappointment, not a destination change.
When Larkin made his original trade request on June 3, the relationship between the player and a meaningful chunk of the fanbase fractured. One immediate data point: The same folks who had spent a decade arguing online that Larkin was a high-end first-line center, in the face of virtually all available evidence, were the first to grab their internet pitchforks and make a hard pivot. Turns out he stunk that whole time. Funny how that works.”
Larkin’s Contract Complicates Any Trade
If they do wind up trading Larkin, it will be interesting to see what they could possibly get in return for him. He signed an eight-year, $69.6 million deal in March 2023, so his contract doesn’t expire for another four seasons after the 2026-27 season concludes. He asked out back in June and no longer wears the C.
Purgatory Is the Worst Outcome
The bottom line is that the Red Wings need to be good enough to make the Stanley Cup playoffs this season and end the 10-year drought. If they can’t do that, Detroit needs to bottom out completely instead of missing the playoffs by a single point.
It would be better for the Red Wings to hold a top-five selection in the 2027 NHL Draft than the No. 16 pick that goes to the best team to miss the playoffs. Detroit is a franchise that can’t be stuck in purgatory. The Red Wings need to be bad enough that they have to sell this season at the trade deadline, or good enough that they have to be serious buyers.
