W.G. Brady
Spotrac predicts what Jared Goff contract extension will cost Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions are at a crucial juncture with their quarterback, Jared Goff. His contract set to expire after the 2024 season poses a significant decision for the Lions’ future at this pivotal position. Goff, who has experienced a remarkable turnaround since his arrival in Detroit, has emerged as a key player for the team. His performance in the last two seasons has been commendable, leading to speculation about his potential contract extension and its impact on the Lions’ financial planning.
Predicting Jared Goff’s Contract Extension
Spotrac, a respected source for sports financial information, has made a projection regarding Jared Goff’s possible contract extension. Considering the current market trends, where top quarterbacks like Joe Burrow command a hefty price, Goff’s recent performance could see him falling into a similar financial bracket. Michael Ginnitti of Spotrac compares Goff’s situation to that of Kirk Cousins, suggesting that Goff could command around $40 million per year, aligning with the percentage of the salary cap at the time of his previous contract.
From Spotrac:
The former #1 overall pick back in 2016 will be entering a contract year in 2024, set to earn a non-guaranteed $26.6M (including a $5M roster bonus due March 14th). Goff and this Lions system appear to be a match made in heaven, so it seems a lock that the two sides will hammer out a multi-year guarantee extension this spring. But to what tune?
After a lackluster 2021 campaign in Detroit (91.5 rating), Goff has now put together back to back seasons that prove he’s worth the price of admission. At the time of this piece, PFF has him rated #3 among all QBs, while his 99.1 QBR currently ranks 9th. Contractually speaking, Goff’s numbers (and career arch) line up best with Kirk Cousins, who will also be in the market for a new contract in the coming months. What does this mean financially? If the top of the QB market is seeking $50M+, Cousins and Goff are most likely mathematically falling into the $40M per year range.
Jared Goff’s current contract was signed at the start of the 2019 season. His $33.5M average annual salary represented 17.8% of the league salary cap at the time. If Detroit were to sign him to a contract extension right now (not a horrible idea by the way), 17.8% of the current cap calculates to almost exactly $40M per year. Should the cap rise to $245M next March, his assumed price could rise to almost $44M per year. Let’s not overthink this and split the difference.
PREDICTION:
The Lions extend Goff at 5 new years, $210,000,000 new money, $168M practically guaranteed
Our Prediction
I fully expect the NFL salary cap to skyrocket for the 2024 season, which means Goff will get a MEGA contract that will make a lot of people VERY uncomfortable. I know I am going to get ripped for this, but my projection is that Goff lands a 4-year, $212 million extension with around $165 million of that being guaranteed.
TL;DR (too long didn’t read)
- Jared Goff‘s contract with the Detroit Lions is nearing its end, requiring a decision on his future with the team.
- Spotrac estimates Goff’s potential extension, comparing his performance and market value to quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins.
- The predicted contract could be a 5-year extension, totaling $210 million, with $168 million practically guaranteed.
Bottom Line – A Strategic Investment
The Lions’ decision to potentially extend Jared Goff‘s contract is a strategic move, reflecting not only his performance but also the team’s belief in his long-term role. With a predicted extension of five years at approximately $210 million, the Lions would be making a substantial investment in their quarterback. This decision, while financially significant, could secure stability and consistency for the team, enabling them to focus on other areas of development and maintain their competitive edge in the league.
