It is no secret that the 2018 Detroit Tigers may look a lot different than this year's current club. With 2017 as disappointing as it has been the talk around town is that the team will be going through a much-needed rebuild. The stated goal of the organization going forward was to get younger and more athletic while staying under the luxury tax–something they haven't been able to do over the last few years.
The Tigers have some very interesting decisions to make this coming offseason and it seems that a lot of it hinges on the decision of Justin Upton. Upton can opt out of his contract which guarantees him $22.125 million until 2021, so this blue print is built in two ways: one with Upton opting out and the subsequent moves from that and with him choosing to stay and the options the Tigers have there as well.
Before we get started there are a few things readers should know. First, the luxury tax, according to the Collective Bargaining Agreement for 2017 is $197 million. Second, the minimum salary for MLB players next year will be $545,000. And lastly, eight players will be arbitration eligible, so we did the best we could to project their 2018 salary based on the MLB Trade Rumors arbitration model.
Moves that must be made this offseason
We'll start our 2018 blueprint by ignoring Justin Upton altogether. I know, all that talk up there about him, and we'll get there, but these three moves need to happen regardless of what J-Up does.
First, the Tigers need to save $11 million by not bringing Anibal Sanchez back. He is owed $16 million next season, but the Tigers can be free of that money by buying him out for $5 million. Given that Sanchez's pitching performances could be featured at Cedar Point, it is a no brainer that he no longer remain a Tiger for 2018.
Second, and very unpopularly, the Tigers also need to buyout Ian Kinsler. As painful as that is to write, the club will save an additional $5 million by buying Kins out. There are two reasons really to by the aging All-Star out. First, Kinsler is on the wrong side of 34 and will be a free agent at the end of the 2018 season meaning his trade value (unless he has a ridiculous season) won't be that high. Second, it helps the Tigers get younger by giving Dixon Machado a chance to play every day. Machado has never really had the opportunity and 2018 should be it.
Third, regardless of Upton's opting out or not, the Tigers need to sign Howie Kendrick to a 1-year $8 million deal. Now you may say, “why in the hell would they sign someone the same age as Kinsler to a contract that was basically the same as Kinsler's?” It's a fair question, but the reasoning is this, Kendrick is 34-years-old, but his value as a trade piece–even a rental–would be higher than Kinsler's. Kendrick is a career .291/.334/.419 hitter who plays everywhere on the field. He would add versatility to our lineup.
Lastly, the Tigers should part ways with Victor Martinez. Regardless of whether or not Martinez is in our lineup next year he is being paid $18 million. But, given his declining power numbers and molasses like speed, all that $18 million would buy us is a clogged up designated hitter, first base, and third base positions in our lineup–something we and our rebuild cannot afford. Thank you for your service to our team Victor, but it's time.
This would bump their dead money up to $46,000,00 which is added into the team's salary for the year.
If Justin Upton doesn't opt out
Upton has said in recent weeks that he could opt out to play for a contender. At the beginning of the season, you would have thought it crazy for Upton to leave that much money on the table. But given the year he is having another big payday is not out of the question.
By Justin Upton staying, the Tigers could still field a relatively competitive team. 2018 should see JaCoby Jones in center field and they still would need a fourth outfielder and that could be a competition between Jason Krizan, Christian Stewart, and Mike Gerber. The rest of the roster would like similar with Jeimer Candelario being called up to play third base, and Nicholas Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera splitting time between first base and designated hitter.
Here's what the roster could look like:
Starting Pitching:
| Player | Salary |
| Justin Verlander | $28,000,000 |
| Michael Fulmer | $545,000 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | $24,000,000 |
| Daniel Norris | $545,000 |
| Matthew Boyd | $545,000 |
If Upton stays, there is no reason to trade Justin Verlander. The rotation would be a year older and guys like Norris and Boyd would be handed the keys and allowed to grow–this being the year to see if they develop or not. The only other option would be to move Norris to the bullpen, a la Danny Duffy, to hope that he figures some things out.
Relief Pitching:
| Player | Salary |
| Shane Greene* (Closer) | $2,500,000 |
| Bruce Rondon* | $1,5000,000 |
| Alex Wilson* | $1,500,000 |
| Warwick Saupold | $545,000 |
| Chad Bell | $545,000 |
| Daniel Stumpf | $545,000 |
| Joe Jimenez | $545,000 |
*Arbitration Eligible
Assuming they don't move Daniel Norris to the bullpen these seven guys could be what we're looking at for the 2018 season. The only sure thing would be that Shane Greene gets the nod at the closer's role and if the Tigers are sellers by the deadline, you flip him like they did Justin Wilson this season.
Here's what these guys have done in the month of August:
Collectively they have a 1.75 ERA in August, not bad for a team whose bullpen has always been their Achilles heel.
Infielders:
| Player | Position | Salary |
| Miguel Cabrera | DH / 1B | $30,000,000 |
| Nicholas Castellanos* | DH / 1B / 3B | $4,500,000 |
| Dixon Machado | 2B / SS / 3B | $545,000 |
| Jose Iglesias* | SS | $6,000,000 |
| Howie Kendrick | INF / OF | $8,000,000 |
| Andrew Romine* | UTL | $2,000,000 |
| James McCann* | C | $1,500,000 |
| John Hicks | C / 1B | $545,000 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 3B / 1B | $545,000 |
*Arbitration Eligible
What you have with this group of guys is a nice mixture of guys who can play multiple positions and allows for rest whenever rest is needed for the older guys on the team. It also gives the Tigers the option of actually seeing what guys like Candelario and Machado have, allowing them to get full reps over the course of a season. This is what you need to know while going through a rebuild.
Outfielders:
| Player | Salary |
| Justin Upton | $22,125,000 |
| Mikie Mahtook | $545,000 |
| JaCoby Jones | $545,000 |
| Jason Krizan | $545,000 |
If Upton were to stay our outfield would be a very athletic outfield capable of hunting down fly balls in the deepest parts of Comerica Park. With the revelation that Mahtook has been this season, he and Upton could be the mentors for a guy like Jones and whoever wins that fourth outfielder spot. Krizan is penciled in given that he's performed well at Toledo and neither Stewart or Gerber have seen action above Double-A — give them some more development time and eventually we'll see them in the Old English D.
Total Salary: $182,085,000 (including dead money)
Under the Luxury Tax: $14,915,000
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If Justin Upton does opt out
By Justin Upton opting out, the Tigers have more incentive to move others players, namely Justin Verlander. Though Verlander is a legacy, should Justin Upton opt out the Tigers will be in a position to save a ton of money and set themselves up for a stacked 2018-19 free agent class.
The Tigers could easily flip Verlander in the offseason to a team that needs a durable front end starter, let's use the Houston Astros for example. The Tigers would send Verlander and $20 million over 2018-19 to cover his contract making Verlander an $18mil/year ace, cheap by any measure you use. The Tigers, in turn, would receive OF Derek Fisher and RHP Elian Rodriguez, with Fisher slotting immediately into the starting outfield.
So what would the roster and money situation look like? Keep in mind that letting Kinsler and Martinez and Sanchez go has already been done.
Starting Pitching:
| Player | Salary |
| Jordan Zimmermann | $24,000,000 |
| Martin Perez | $10,000,00 |
| Michael Fulmer | $545,000 |
| Daniel Norris | $545,000 |
| Matt Boyd | $545,000 |
Relief Pitching:
| Player | Salary |
| Shane Greene* | $2,500,000 |
| Bruce Rondon* | $1,500,000 |
| Alex Wilson* | $1,500,000 |
| Warwick Saupold | $545,000 |
| Chad Bell | $545,000 |
| Daniel Stumpf | $545,000 |
| Joe Jimenez | $545,000 |
*Arbitration Eligible
Infielders:
| Player | Position | Slaray |
| Miguel Cabrera | DH / 1B | $30,000,000 |
| Nicholas Castellanos* | DH / 1B / 3B | $4,500,000 |
| Dixon Machado | 2B / SS / 3B | $545,000 |
| Howie Kendrick | IF / OF | $8,000,000 |
| Jose Iglesias* | SS | $6,000,000 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 3B / 1B | $545,000 |
| Andrew Romine* | UTL | $2,000,000 |
| James McCann* | C | $1,500,000 |
| John Hicks | C / 1B | $545,000 |
*Arbitration Eligible
Outfielders:
| Player | Salary |
| Curtis Granderson | $8,000,000 |
| JaCoby Jones | $545,000 |
| Mikie Mahtook | $545,000 |
| Derek Fisher | $545,000 |
Notice the familiar face? Signing Granderson to a one-year, $8 million salary makes sense on many different levels. First, The Grandy-man is a fan favorite who will put butts in the seats. Second, though he is older he will be a great veteran presence to mentor the young guys in Jones and even Stewart or Gerber if they were to make their debuts. Also, the left-handed bat in the lineup will be a nice addition.
Total Salary: $152,585,000 (including dead money)
Under the Luxury Tax: $44,415,000
Conclusion
These are two options the Tigers have this offseason. They will be more competitive if they go with option number one, but the rebuild could be hastened if they take route number two, and become bigger threats in the free agent market of 2018. Either way, they can't really go wrong, especially if they follow the advice laid out here.
Mr. Avila, I'll send you my consulting bill.
Where and how did you get Martin Perez in the rotation?
He’s a free agent next year and a cheap option. That’s why I chose him.