The Detroit Lions are still alive in the NFL playoff hunt thanks to their 24-21 victory in Tampa Bay. The Lions are currently 7-6 and on the outside looking in, as both NFC Wildcard spots are owned by the NFC South. The 9-4 Carolina Panthers and the 8-5 Atlanta Falcons, both teams the Lions have already faced, and fell against, sit in those coveted spots.
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The NFC division leaders are Philadelphia at 10-3, Los Angeles Rams at 9-4, Minnesota at 10-3, and New Orleans at 9-4. With the NFC South basically monopolizing the NFC playoff chances, it’s already at a worst-case scenario for the Lions as they were defeated by all three NFC South playoff hopefuls. But there are still possible, if not probable scenarios for the Lions to get back to the postseason, so let’s run through them.
First and foremost, the Lions cannot lose another game. If their win total is not 10, they are basically out, because Carolina is already at nine wins, as is New Orleans. Atlanta needs one more win to get to nine themselves, and we already stated Detroit is not winning a tie-breaker against ANY of the NFC South teams. So under the assumption that Detroit wins out and gets to 10-6, here’s how the rest has to play out.
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With Carolina and New Orleans at 9-4, one of them has to go winless the rest of the way, and Atlanta can win one of their last three games. This would leave the NFC South with one 10-win team and two 9-win teams guaranteeing the Lions a playoff spot. In the NFC East, the Dallas Cowboys are also 7-6, but even if they win out and get to 10-6, the Lions own the tiebreaker thanks to their 30-17 victory over Green Bay in November, a very important game as Dallas lost to Green Bay in October. The Cowboys travel to Oakland this weekend, host Seattle next weekend, and finish the year in Philadelphia.
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Meanwhile, in the west, the Seattle Seahawks sit at 8-5, and are another team standing in the Lions way. If Seattle wins out, it’s basically over for Motown. But if the Seahawks also end up at 10-6, their season-opening loss at Green Bay dooms them as well. Seattle, Dallas, and Detroit have all faced and defeated the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals, but only Detroit has a victory against the Packers. The Seahawks host the Rams this weekend, travel to Dallas next weekend, and host the Cardinals to finish the year.
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The Packers, also standing at 7-6, are currently trailing Detroit thanks to their head-to-head game, as well as Detroit’s 3-1 NFC North record, compared to Green Bay’s 2-2 NFC North record. Green Bay has the most difficult finishing stretch as they travel to Carolina this weekend, host Minnesota next weekend, and travel to Ford Field to finish the season. Aaron Rodgers is expected to return by the Minnesota game, IF Green Bay is still in the playoff hunt. And that’s a big if when they have to face a Carolina team that is also playing for the postseason.
If you want to play the “what-if” game with the playoffs, ESPN has a 2017 NFL Playoff Machine that should tickle your fancy.
