When it comes to winning the NFL Most Valuable Player award, a player needs two things to go his way. First, he has to ball out for the entire year while piling up some amazing stats and second, he has to be on a team that wins a ton of games.
For Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, piling up stats is not a problem but winning a ton of games has been a huge problem for him and his teammates.
Because of the lack of winning football games, Stafford is never one of the favorites to win MVP and that is the case this season as he is currently listed at 50-1 to bring home the hardware.
That being said, one person who believes Stafford is a good longshot bet to win MVP is Ben Solak of The Draft Network.
Here is what Solak had to say about Stafford being his longshot bet.
The biggest bet I’d place on any of these longshots would go on Matthew Stafford, who was wicked good for the Lions in 2020. Among starting quarterbacks last year, Stafford was fifth in the league in adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), which is one of the best metrics we have for individual quarterback efficiency. Above him were Lamar Jackson (MVP), Drew Brees (record-setter), Patrick Mahomes (Super Bowl Champion), and one other guy. We’ll get to him later.
It’s tough to say that the Lions got better on offense, which is where some concern can creep in. They made the early investment in the draft on a running back in D’Andre Swift, and their big-money spend in free agency was on offensive tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai, who is arguably a downgrade on Rick Wagner at right tackle. Meanwhile, they’re hoping one of their middle-round picks on the interior of the line—Jonah Jackson in Round 3 and Logan Stenberg in Round 4—can account for the departure of Graham Glasgow.
Stafford led the league last year in the percent of his passing attempts that were contested, as well as in intended air yards. He threw it downfield and into coverage, and let Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay do their work.
However, what really matters for this passing attack is Stafford and his supersized weapons, and those remain. Stafford led the league last year in the percent of his passing attempts that were contested, as well as in intended air yards. He threw it downfield and into coverage, and let Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay do their work. His profile as a passer was similar to other slingers like Jameis Winston and Ryan Tannehill, but he’s more accurate and risk-averse than both, which winnows down on the negative ramifications of such a play style. During the eight-game stretch of healthy Stafford last year, both Jones and Golladay were in the top 20 in yards per reception.
The change to a play-action, deep-shot attack under new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell did wonders for Stafford last year, and if he’s healthy over 16 games, that should be reflected in his production. Of course, an MVP must play on a winning team; a playoff team. The Lions are far from destined for dominance in a thick NFC North this season, but it is worth noting, they had some ugly luck last year in the win-loss column and should have won both the Kansas City and Green Bay games to finish 5-2-1 under Stafford. It remains to be seen if Matt Patricia can keep the defense afloat, but the Lions are squarely in contention for the division title, largely because of Stafford’s success as a passer under Bevell. As such, he’s the horse I want to back.
Nation, would you place a few bucks on Stafford to win the MVP this coming season?
