A look at the Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears: inside the numbers paints a very clear picture of who the better team is and should dominate Sunday.
Alright, Lions fans, here we go! The first matchup with the Chicago Bears this season and it couldn’t come at a better time. Now, while no game in the NFL is considered an easy win, the Bears really shouldn’t pose any threat to the Lions. And even though Justin Fields’ “poor wittle fumb” is feeling better, the Lions should be just fine come Sunday afternoon.
Detroit Lions offense vs. Chicago’s defense
The Lions offense is really, really good. Overall the Lions are the fourth-best team in the league according to DVOA. They are averaging 26.8 points per game, which is good for sixth-best in the league. They are averaging 406.4 yards per game and Jared Goff and the offense should have a field day with the Bears defense.
Lions’ rushing attack vs. Bears’ run defense
This may be the only chance the Bears really have this weekend to be “formidable.” Their rush defense is pretty good, surrendering only 3.1 yards per rush and only 76.0 yards per game, both of which are top 1 & 2 in the league respectively. But the Lions aren’t slouches in the run game. Averaging 4.5 yards per rush and 139 yards per game means that something has got to give. And, regardless of their move to acquire Montez Sweat, which still makes zero sense, the Lions’ offensive line is better than the Bears’ defensive front and it’ll show on Sunday.
Lions’ passing game vs. Bears’ secondary
Should the Bears be able to slow the Lions’ run game down (they won’t), then Goff takes over and has to outduel Justin Fields — I like our chances. The Lions boast the fourth-best passing game in the league, while the Bears are the 26th-best secondary, surrendering 248.2 yards per game. Should the Bears somehow magically make the Lions one-dimensional, it will not matter.
Detroit Lions’ defense vs. Chicago’s offense
This is definitely a “get right” game for the Lions’ defense. After a week where they surrendered 38 points, 323 yards through the air, and four touchdowns; the secondary should get a bit of a break this week. Whether its Fields or the other guy starting for them, it doesn’t matter. The Bears are just a bad football team. Even with the surrendered yardage and points last Sunday, the Lions’ defense is still top-10 in DVOA.
Lions’ run stoppers vs. the Raiders’ ground game
The Bears are going to try to run the ball as often as they can because trusting Justin Fields to throw the ball is not the best strategy. They do run the ball well and nearly 50% of the time, but will be facing the Lions’ premier run stoppers, who only surrender 79.1 yards per game, which is good for third-best in the league. This is similar to the Lions offense and Bears defense where something is going to give and once again, I like our guys better.
Lions’ secondary vs. the Raiders’ passing attack
I’ll try to actually analyze, but I more or less need to control myself from laughing. Our secondary has holes, but even they couldn’t be exposed by the Bears’ passing game. It’s atrocious. they only average 187 yards through the air and throw an INT 4% of the time. And, for the Lions’ whose pass rush is hurting, they surrender a sack 9% of the time. So this should ABSOLUTELY be a get-right game for all facets of the defense.
Game Outlook
This shouldn’t be a close game. The Bears are not a good football team and the Lions are at the top of their division for a reason. The Lions are favored by nine points and should cover easily. There should be at last a 17-point win, but we’re not going to let up, and the final score will end up 31-6.
