It’ll be a new season for the Detroit Tigers with a new manager and several new faces. However, that doesn’t mean that the experts are giving them more generosity in terms of projected win totals.
PECOTA (acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) is projecting that the Tigers will finish with a pedestrian 67-95 record, ahead of only the Baltimore Orioles in the American League.
For reference, the system projected Detroit to win 68 games in 2018; they won 64. And for 2019, they were a little too kind – a projected win total of 67 against an actual win total of just 47.
Here’s how projections are worked out:
1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;
2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player’s true talent level;
3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players’ stats changed over time.
BONUS CONTENT
Jonathan Schoop discusses potential for multiple roles
The Detroit Tigers officially made the decision to re-sign 2B Jonathan Schoop to a one year deal worth $4.5 million for a second year in the Motor City.
Schoop, who signed a one-year deal with Detroit last offseason, ranked second on the team in 2020 with eight home runs while also batting .278 with 23 RBI.
During an interview to discuss the new deal, Schoop revealed that he discussed his versatility as a player with new manager A.J. Hinch, though he’ll be perfectly happy with remaining at second base if that’s where the team needs him.
“I just want to prove that I can play short, I can play third, I can play all over,” he said. “Wherever they need me. Even if they need me in the outfield, I’m ready for whatever.”
Schoop also stated that his wrist, which was injured in September and ended his season, had fully healed.
“We have a really good group here – we started to build something special last year and are going to take it to the next level in 2021,” Schoop explained shortly after the deal was announced. “This year I can’t wait to experience first-hand the energy that the wonderful Tigers’ fans bring to Comerica Park.”
“One of the other major factors in coming back to Detroit is the manager and the coaching staff. I’m excited to play for A.J. – he and I have already had great conversations about allowing me to showcase my defensive versatility a bit more this year. And Scott Coolbaugh was my hitting coach in Baltimore during my 2017 All-Star season. He is a great hitting coach and communicator, and knows how much damage I can do at the plate.”
In his eight career seasons in Major League Baseball, Schoop has hit a combined 259/.297/.450 in 846 games, with 157 doubles, 141 home runs and 415 total runs batted in.
– – Quotes via Jason Beck of MLB.com Link – –
