PECOTA predicts a tough season for Detroit Tigers in 2023

Detroit TigersTigers NotesPECOTA predicts a tough season for Detroit Tigers in 2023


If you’re a fan of the Detroit Tigers, the latest projection system might make for some tough reading. Or, maybe it'll be more of the same, just like the other two projections the analytics guys have put out. PECOTA, the respected Baseball Prospectus projection system, has predicted that the team will suffer a rough season in 2023. The Tigers are projected to lose nearly 100 games, finishing the year with a 65-97 record – one game worse than their 2022 season, and their worst result since 2019.

Why It Matters:

PECOTA's projections give an idea of what to expect from the Tigers in the 2023 season. While the projections show improvement in some areas, the team still has a long way to go to be competitive. The Tigers may surprise fans by exceeding these projections, but the projections suggest the team will struggle in 2023.

  • PECOTA, a highly respected projection system, has predicted a disappointing season for the Detroit Tigers in 2023, suggesting that the team will finish with a 65-97 record.
  • The system is often used by fans, analysts and sports betting enthusiasts as a benchmark to make their own predictions, so this projection is likely to be widely discussed.
Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers by the numbers:

  • PECOTA predicts that the Tigers will have a difficult season in 2023, with the team projected to lose nearly 100 games and finish with a 65-97 record.
  • Austin Meadows is the only Tigers hitter projected to have an above-average Defensive Runs Created Plus (DRC+), with a score of 110. This is BP’s catch-all offensive metric, with anything above 100 indicating above-average offensive production and anything below indicating below-average.
  • Eric Haase is also rated highly by PECOTA, with a score of 98 DRC+, which would represent very solid offensive production for a catcher.
  • The projection expects modest improvement from shortstop Javier Baez (97 DRC+), and bounce-backs from Spencer Torkelson (94 DRC+) and Jonathan Schoop (91 DRC+).
  • It also does not see any standout third base replacements for Jeimer Candelario, who moved to the Washington Nationals. Nick Maton is expected to be the primary candidate, although 10 other players will be vying for the job.
  • Riley Greene is another player who doesn't receive much praise from PECOTA, with an 85 DRC+ projection and unappealing long-term comps.

The Bottom Line:

The new projection system predicts that the Tigers will have a challenging season in 2023, with their predicted 65-97 record the worst finish the team has had since 2019. The Tigers’ hopes for a better season will be pinned on some individual performances from Austin Meadows, Eric Haase, Javier Baez, Spencer Torkelson, and Jonathan Schoop. The team’s search for a reliable replacement for Jeimer Candelario at third base could also be critical to their chances of turning things around.

Going Deeper:

“Will Tigers lose 100 games in 2023? New PECOTA projection offers grim outlook.”

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