As we collectively dust off the muck and mire from the disaster in Baltimore, it’s time to turn our attention to the Detroit Lions vs. Las Vegas Raiders: inside the numbers analysis for the week. This game will be featured on Monday Night Football and highlights a team that is at the top of their division at 5-2 versus a team that is 3-4 in the Raiders, but the advanced metrics are not kind to.
Detroit Lions offense vs. Las Vegas’s defense
This game is a perfect rebound matchup for the Lions. When you look at DVOA, this is a top team against a team that is at the bottom — even if the Lions did drop a bit this week. The Lions rank 7th overall in DVOA, while the Raiders are 30th (out of 32). Let’s see how we get there.
Lions’ rushing attack vs. Raiders’ run defense
The Lions rushing attack has taken a hit recently. None of their running backs have survived the injury bug and their run game has taken a hit. This past week, Jamyr Gibbs had to take the bulk of the work with David Montgomery sidelined for a couple of weeks. They have had some tough sledding and hopefully, they’ll be able to establish a ground game this week against a team that allows 4.4 yards per carry and 129 yards per game on the ground. The biggest question is going to be who is toting the rock for the Lions, with Gibbs getting the lion’s share (no pun intended) of the carries.
Lions’ passing game vs. Raiders’ secondary
Here’s where the game could get sketchy, should the Lions not be able to establish the running game. The Raiders currently have a top-five secondary, according to pass yards per game. Not to mention they are the 12th highest graded in coverage according to Pro Football Focus. Jared Goff has been pretty good, outside of this last week in Baltimore when no one was good, and he’ll need to be again on Monday night. The biggest thing for the Lions passing game is figuring out how to get Goff and Jameson Williams on the same page. Whether it’s a timing issue or a comfortability, Goff has to find a way to get the ball into the hands of Williams.
Overall, the Lions offense ranks 7th in DVOA after last week. The Raiders offense ranks near the bottom at 31 in DVOA. This is where the game will be won or lost. If the Lions don’t get it going on offense it will lead to another long night for Lions fans; they shouldn’t have much issue getting it going though.
Detroit Lions’ defense vs. Las Vegas’s offense
There’s no doubt the Lions’ defense needs a reset. They have historically struggled against mobile quarterbacks, which does not apply this week — thankfully. Facing Jimmy Garappolo or Brian Hoyer this week should allow the defense a reset.
Lions’ run stoppers vs. the Raiders’ ground game
The Lions still have a top-five run defense, according to Pro Football Focus. This is good because the Raiders offense grades out second to last in the league, even with Josh Jacobs they have struggled on the ground this season to the tune of 3.0 yards per rush and only 68.6 yards per game. What’s more, Jacobs hasn’t rushed for 100 yards once this season; hopefully, this Monday Night Football showdown won’t be the first.
Lions secondary vs. the Raiders’ passing attack
The Raiders passing attack really isn’t that much better than their rushing game, but it is a little better. They only pass for 215.6 yards per game. The Lions for their efforts have given up 240.6 yards per game and will need a good effort to bounce back from last week. Getting pressure on Garappolo and make his Monday night difficult, especially in his first game back from injury.
Game Outlook
As the Lions prepare for their Monday Night matchup, they are in desperate need of a home game and the energy they draw from the crowd. With all the numbers considered, the Lions are the clear favorite at home. They should come out and make clear they are the team we think they are with a two-score victory: 30-17.
