One of the biggest questions heading into the 2021 NFL Draft, at least for the Detroit Lions, is should the Lions select a quarterback if one of the top signal-callers is on the board when the No. 7 pick comes around?
Well, in a piece recently published on ESPN.com, Seth Walder and Paul Sabin take a look at the chances of Justin Fields, Mac Jones, or Trey Lance being better than current Lions QB Jared Goff in both 2021 and 2022. (They even threw Matthew Stafford into the mix just to rub salt in our wounds)
As you can see below, according to ESPN’s breakdown, neither Fields, Jones, nor Lance has much of a chance to be better than Goff in either 2021 or 2022.
From ESPN:
To help us answer the question, we’re using our new quarterback projections, which output predictions for college and pro QBs on the same scale. You can read the full methodology at the bottom, but in short: predictions for 2021 rookies are based on their statistical performance in college, Scouts Inc. grade and age. After quarterbacks enter the pros, their projections are updated based on past NFL performance and age.
Detroit Lions: Pick No. 7
Our model … kind of loves Jared Goff? That’s relative to perception anyway, given that he was dumped by the Rams in the swap for Matthew Stafford. The trade was most likely a downgrade for the Lions — especially if you believe that Goff’s numbers were inflated by Sean McVay — but maybe not drastically so.
Given the numbers above and given that the Lions seem to be rebuilding with an eye toward 2022 and that they have to pay Goff now anyway, it seems perfectly reasonable for Detroit to draft a non-quarterback in the first-round this year (ideally by trading down) and see if Goff performs better in 2021. If he doesn’t, the Lions are set up to start anew with a rookie signal-caller next season, when they have an extra first-round pick from the trade with the Rams.
It would be hard to fault them for selecting Fields if he fell into their lap, but a trade up is probably not worth it given the projections and Detroit’s roster.
Nation, so you agree with these projections? If not, which of these three rookie quarterbacks has the best chance of being better than Goff in Year 1 or Year 2 of their career?
