On Sunday, Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams stormed back in the fourth quarter to defeat the San Fransico 49ers by a score of 20-17 to advance to the Super Bowl.
Following the game, plenty took to social media to blast the Detroit Lions, not only for trading Stafford in the first place but for trading his for a lesser haul than they could have gotten from the Carolina Panthers.
So, did the Lions take the wrong deal for Matthew Stafford? Let’s take a quick look.
Rams Offer (Accepted)
3rd Round pick 2021 (No. 101 overall)
1st Round pick 2022 (No. 31 or No. 32 overall)
1st Round pick 2023 (TBD)
Panthers ‘Reported’ Offer (Denied)
1st Round pick (No. 8 overall)
5th Round pick (No. 151 overall)
Teddy Bridgewater
Now, plenty of people are saying the Lions should have taken the Panthers’ offer because it was more valuable than what the Rams were offering for Stafford.
Let’s use the Jimmy Johnson NFL Draft Trade Value Chart to put some value on each of the picks involved in the trade.
*For this exercise, let’s say the Rams win the Super Bowl, giving the Lions the No. 32 pick in 2022, and then take a little step back and get the No. 25 pick in 2023)
Rams Offer (Accepted)
3rd Round pick 2021 (No. 101 overall) (JJ VALUE: 96 points)
1st Round pick 2022 (No. 31 or No. 32 overall) (590 points)
1st Round pick 2023 (No. 25) (720 points)
Jared Goff (90.0 passer rating and 50.8 QBR)
TOTAL PACKAGE: 1406 points and Goff
Panthers ‘Reported’ Offer (Denied)
1st Round pick (No. 8 overall) (JJ VALUE: 1400 points)
5th Round pick (No. 151 overall) (29.4 points)
Teddy Bridgewater (92.1 passer rating and 56.8 QBR)
TOTAL PACKAGE: 1429 points and Bridgewater
As you can see above, the Rams offer (assuming a Super Bowl win and the No. 25 pick in 2023) and the Panthers’ offer for Stafford were actually pretty darn close in terms of value.
Would the Lions have drafted Micah Parsons at No. 8 had they taken the Panthers’ offer? Maybe, but they also could have taken QB Justin Fields or WR DeVonta Smith, depending on who they had ranked highest on their board.
In my opinion, the Rams offer and the Panthers’ offer were close enough in value to send Stafford where he really wanted to go.
That being said, Lions GM Brad Holmes had better bring in some difference makers with the two first-round picks he got from the Rams because if he swings and misses, and Parsons goes on to have an All-Pro type career, then my opinion would change quickly!
Nation, what do you think?
