ESPN’s simulation model predicts Detroit Lions floor and ceiling for 2020

The 2020 NFL season is right around the corner and all we can do at this point is cross our fingers that the season will go on as planned and we get to watch out Detroit Lions make a run at the playoffs.

After a 3-12-1 record in 2019, there is only one way to go but up, and with a healthy Matthew Stafford, that is exactly what many expect to happen in 2020.

According to ESPN, who used their Football Power Index (FPI) to run 20,000 simulations, the Lions have the lowest floor and ceiling compared to the rest of their counterparts in the NFC North.

As you can see below, the ESPN simulations predict the Lions to have a ceiling of nine wins and a floor of four wins.

Ceiling: 9-7 | Floor: 4-12

Biggest variable: Defensive effectiveness. The offense, as long as Matthew Stafford is healthy, should be efficient and potent enough to stay in any game. The defense, Matt Patricia's specialty, is where the Lions faltered all last season. It brought in new pieces, with potentially six new starters, to try and make improvements. Of those, cornerbacks Jeff Okudah and Desmond Trufant, along with linebacker Jamie Collins, have the best chances to make game-changing differences. If it works, the Lions will be playoff contenders and could push for a division title. If it doesn't, Detroit might be looking at a coaching change after the season. More than likely, as is what usually happens in Detroit, the Lions will find themselves somewhere in between. — Michael Rothstein

Personally, I have the Lions ceiling at 11 wins and their floor at 4 wins, depending on whether or not Matthew Stafford plays a full season. If Stafford does play 16 games, I truly believe the Lions will win between 9 and 11 games in 2020.

Nation, what do you think the Lions floor and ceiling are for the upcoming season?