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Will Jared Goff be the Detroit Lions quarterback of the future? A couple of weeks ago, Lions' GM Brad Holmes was asked about that, and though he would come straight out and commit to Goff long-term, he pretty much said that would be the case. “I do think that Jared has proven to everybody that he is a starting quarterback for us,” Holmes told reporters. A day earlier, Goff spoke to reporters during the team's locker clean-out day and he said he had not yet been approached by the Lions' front office about a contract extension. “I've loved my time here.” He said about his time in Detroit, but added, “We'll see.” Most agree that Goff had a very good 2022 season, but, when looking into the advanced stats, he was even better than you thought.
Why it Matters
When the Lions traded Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams following the 2022 season, they received a trio of draft picks and Goff as a return package. Many were convinced Goff was going to be a bridge until Brad Holmes could find Detroit's QB of the future, but, the way Goff has been playing, the QB of the future could be him.
- Goff is coming off what was arguably his best season in the NFL
- He is currently under contract through the 2024 season
- Brad Holmes will eventually have to decide if they want to give him a long-term extension
Jared Goff by the Numbers in 2022
Goff did not get off to a great start in 2022, and neither did the Lions as they were 1-6 to start the season. But, over the last 10 games, where Detroit went 8-2, Goff was nearly flawless.
- Goff threw 17 TDs and 1 interception over the final 10 games of the season.
- Over those games, he completed 66% of his passes
- QB rating of 103.8 over the final 10 games (Patrick Mahomes posted a 102.2 rating during that time)
- Goff finished the season with a 65.1 completion percentage while throwing for 4,438 yards
- He threw for a total of 29 TDs and just seven interceptions (zero INTs over final nine games)
Jared Goff by the (ADVANCED) Numbers in 2022
By looking at the stats above, it is pretty obvious that Goff had a very good season. But, the advanced stats from Football Outsiders prove that Goff was even better than you thought he was.
- No. 2 overall in DYAR rating (Mahomes was No. 1)
- No. 2 in YAR rating
- No. 4 in DVOA rating
- No. 4 in VOA rating
- No. 5 in QBR rating
- No. 3 in EYds
Ratings explained (Via Football Insiders)
Quarterbacks are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the quarterback's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.
The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.
The simple version: DYAR means a quarterback with more total value. DVOA means a quarterback with more value per play.
Because it is currently early in the season, there are not yet strength of schedule adjustments. They will begin after Week 4.
Effective Yards (EYds) translate DVOA into a yards per attempt figure. This provides an easy comparison: in general, players with more Effective Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate, while players with fewer Effective Yards than standard yards played worse than standard stats would otherwise indicate. Effective Yards are not the best way to measure total value because they are more dependent on usage than DYAR.
Total QBR (listed as just QBR) is a metric created by the ESPN Stats & Information group. Total QBR is based on the expected points added by the quarterback on each play, then adjusts the numbers to a scale of 0-100. QBR as displayed here is adjusted for opponent. It exists back to 2006. There are four main differences between Total QBR and Football Outsiders' DVOA metric (with further explanation here):
- Total QBR incorporates information from game charting, such as passes dropped or thrown away on purpose.
- Total QBR splits responsibility on plays between the quarterback, his receivers, and his blockers. Drops, for example, are more on the receiver, as are yards after the catch, and some sacks are more on the offensive line than others.
- Total QBR has a clutch factor which adds (or subtracts) value for quarterbacks who perform best (or worst) in high-leverage situations.
- Total QBR combines passing and rushing value into one number and differentiates between scrambles and planned runs.
The bottom line is that heading into the 2022 season, there were a ton of people who were ready to run Jared Goff out of town, and those voices only got louder as the Lions got off to a 1-6 start. Well, as you can see by the stats above, Goff proceeded to shut up the haters, and most (there are still some haters out there) believe he is Detroit's QB of the future. The question is, how far into the future are we talking? Will the Lions hold on to him as their starter until his contract runs out, or will they add a QB via either the 2023 or 2024 NFL Draft to be his eventual replacement?