A light edition of Ryan’s Lion’s Betting Preview this week. I finally got off the schneid–correctly picking the Lions to cover the spread against the Cowboys. Unfortunately, the cover came at the expense of losing the total, as the Lions touchdown with 2:17 left in the fourth quarter pushed the game total over 44.
So, one quarter through the Lion’s schedule, it’s not looking so good–hitting 25% of both the game side and total. The only saving grace is that my “other games” in the NFL are 6-2 (75%) on the year meaning that if you’ve wagered every play with the same amount of money, we’re only down the “juice” (or vig).
This week, the Lions host the Packers. While the Lions have had some success against Green Bay of late, today might not be the day this continues.
The Packers opened as a short one-point favorite on the road. The favorite in this matchup is 19-7 in the last 26 Lions/Packers games. Detroit has won two games in a row, and the Packers come in to Ford Field with revenge.
Green Bay should be able to run the ball a little better against the Lions than they have against their first three opponents this season. That is important because they rely on the run to set up the pass, so we could have a Packers offense firing on all cylinders today (automotive term).
Although the Lions defense has performed well at times, and not-so-well at times, this doesn’t bode well for them today. Look for Aaron Rodgers to have a big day, and Green Bay to score points in bunches.
A late line move has made this game a “pick ‘em”, (no point spread) but going from -1 to pick doesn’t change the bet.
Bet the Packers (pick) at Detroit.
On the other side of the ball, Detroit has proven that their offense CAN move the ball in spurts, and even though they had a jump start (another automotive term) to their running game two weeks ago, it didn’t continue into the Dallas game.
The Lions are averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt, and if they find themselves down early, could be passing, and passing a lot.
Six of the last seven Lions/Packers games have gone over the total. The over is 21-6 in the last 27 Packers games. Lions games against NFC opponents have gone over eight times in the last ten games. The over is 8-3 in the last eleven home games.
The total of this game is 51, and should go way over in an old-fashioned shootout.
Bet Green Bay vs Detroit OVER 51 points
The other two NFL wagers that I like this week are:
Bet the San Francisco 49ers -3 over the Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco was picked by many to be a solid team in the NFC West this season, but those expectations have been tempered by the loss of starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Last week, in their first game without Jimmy G., they lost 29-27 at the Chargers. Granted, one of their touchdowns was a pick-six of Philip Rivers, but they still scored 27 points.
The Cardinals have scored 6,0,14, and 17 points in their four games this season. They may score a season-high against San Fran today, but that could be as little as 18 points.
C.J. Beathard held his own against the Chargers, and comes into the Cardinals game with another full week of first-team reps in practice. This is a key factor in the game. He was 23-for-37 for 298 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. If he learned anything from those turnovers and apply it to his work this week, the 49ers should roll over a bad Cardinals team.
Arizona is 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. That won’t improve today.
Bet the Washington Redskins +6 at New Orleans
There will be a lot of talk about Drew Brees and his quest to become the NFL’s all-time leading passer by yardage. He needs 201 yards to surpass Peyton Manning atop the list.
There will be little talk that the Redskins have had two weeks to prepare for this game, nor will there be talk about the return of Mark Ingram and how getting him touches in the Saints offense may upset their rhythm.
The Saints are a just-better-than-mediocre team, and are favored by a touchdown (without the extra point!).The Redskins definitely a better-than-mediocre team, and will have figured out how to exploit the Saints inconsistent defense. Look for Brees to get the job done, but in a losing effort.
The Redskins win straight up.
LIONS side: 1-3
LIONS total: 1-3
OTHER wagers: 6-2