Sometimes the NFL Draft breaks your way, not because you planned it, but because the league tells you who it values.
And if history repeats itself in the 2026 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions could be staring at a rare opportunity: landing Top 5 talent at No. 17 overall if former Ohio State safety Caleb Downs slides.
That might sound impossible at first. Downs is widely viewed by scouts as one of the five best overall players in the class. But the position he plays, safety, has quietly become one of the most devalued spots on draft night.
Why Caleb Downs Could Slide
The NFL has made one thing painfully clear over the last half-decade: elite safeties don’t go early anymore, no matter how good they are.
Here’s where the first safety has been drafted in each of the past five drafts:
- 2025: Round 1, Pick 27 – Malaki Starks (Ravens)
- 2024: Round 2, Pick 47 – Tyler Nubin (Giants)
- 2023: Round 2, Pick 45 – Brian Branch (Lions)
- 2022: Round 1, Pick 14 – Kyle Hamilton (Ravens)
- 2021: Round 2, Pick 36 – Jevon Holland (Dolphins)
Even generational prospects like Hamilton and Branch didn’t crack the Top 10.
If teams once again prioritize quarterbacks, edge rushers, offensive tackles, and wide receivers early, Downs could realistically fall into the teens — right where Detroit is scheduled to pick.
Caleb Downs: A Top 5 Player
This is where the Lions could hit the jackpot.
Downs isn’t just the best safety in the class, he’s one of the most complete defensive players in college football.
Scouting Evaluation:
- Elite range and closing speed
- Rare football IQ and anticipation
- Physical downhill tackler with linebacker-like instincts
- Comfortable playing deep safety, in the slot, or near the line
- Natural leader who quarterbacks the secondary
At Ohio State, Downs consistently erased mistakes before they became explosive plays. He processes faster than most quarterbacks throw and has the versatility to thrive in both single-high and split-safety looks.
Simply put: he plays faster than everyone else on the field.
Why Downs Makes Sense for Detroit Right Now
The Lions’ safety room suddenly has more questions than answers.
- Kerby Joseph is dealing with a lingering knee issue that raises long-term durability concerns
- Brian Branch, while elite, is currently recovering from an Achilles injury, a serious hurdle for any defensive back
Even if both return healthy, Detroit can’t assume the status quo at one of the most demanding positions in Kelvin Sheppard’s defense.
Downs would give the Lions:
- Immediate insurance at safety
- A long-term defensive centerpiece
- The flexibility to move Branch back into matchup-heavy roles
- A stabilizing presence behind an aggressive front seven
This would be a luxury pick that feels like a necessity.
Brad Holmes Has Been Here Before
This exact scenario should feel familiar to Lions fans.
In 2023, Detroit landed Brian Branch in Round 2, a player many viewed as Top 15 talent, because the league once again let a safety fall.
Holmes didn’t hesitate.
If Caleb Downs is sitting there at No. 17, the value would be too loud to ignore. Draft boards don’t win games, players do.
The Bottom Line
If the NFL continues to undervalue safeties, the Detroit Lions could be in position to steal one of the five best players in the entire 2026 draft without trading up.
Caleb Downs at No. 17 wouldn’t just be a good pick.
It would be a franchise-altering gift wrapped by league-wide draft bias.
