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ESPN’s FPI Predicts Michigan State Football to Have Losing Record in 2024


Michigan State Football Faces Challenges in Upcoming Season

As the 2024 season approaches, Michigan State football, under the leadership of new head coach Jonathan Smith, is grappling with modest projections despite recent recruiting successes. According to ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index (FPI), the Spartans are ranked 68th nationally, placing them 17th out of 18 teams in the Big Ten.

Michigan State football

Challenges Ahead for New Head Coach Jonathan Smith

Smith, who was appointed head coach in November following the dismissal of Mel Tucker, brings a record of 34-35 from his tenure at Oregon State, including a 23-29 mark in Pac-12 play. His arrival comes after a turbulent period marked by off-field controversies and disappointing on-field performances. The FPI metric aims to predict the outcomes of games and season trajectories rather than rank the “best” teams. It takes into account prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings, and coaching tenure. Based on these factors, Michigan State is projected to finish with a 5-7 record. The Spartans have a 36.4% chance of winning six games to reach bowl eligibility and a mere 0.6% chance of making the College Football Playoff.

Tough Schedule and New Additions for Michigan State Football

The Michigan State Football schedule includes challenging matchups against two top-five preseason FPI teams, No. 2 Oregon and No. 4 Ohio State, further compounding their uphill battle. The new coaching staff has focused on enhancing the roster through the transfer portal, bringing in more than 20 players. Among the newcomers are three projected starters with previous ties to Smith at Oregon State: quarterback Aidan Chiles, center Tanner Miller, and tight end Jack Velling.

Smith acknowledges the work ahead. “That’s why you coach, is you enjoy improvement and the process that takes,” he said. “Yeah, we’ve got a long way to go. I enjoy, this coaching staff enjoys that process of improvement and development, especially working with a group like this.”

Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith Jonathan Smith announces

Looking Ahead to the Season Opener

The transition to Smith’s leadership and the substantial roster changes set a cautious but hopeful tone for the season opener on Aug. 30, when Florida Atlantic visits Spartan Stadium. As the Michigan State Football team adapts to their new direction under Coach Smith, their performance will be closely watched by fans and analysts alike, eager to see how the team navigates this rebuilding phase.

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Written by W.G. Brady

W.G. Brady is a Detroit-based journalist who has been covering the Detroit sports scene for Detroit Sports Nation for several years. He is in his early 30s and has a wealth of experience in the industry. Throughout his career, W.G. has established himself as a respected and knowledgeable journalist known for his in-depth coverage of the teams and athletes in Detroit. With a keen eye for detail and a passion for sports, W.G. has become a go-to source for fans and readers looking for the latest news and analysis on the Detroit sports scene. He has a good reputation in the sports community and is respected for his unbiased coverage of sports events. W.G. is known for his ability to uncover hidden stories and provide unique perspectives on the teams and athletes he covers. He has a good understanding of the city of Detroit and its sports culture, which he uses to inform his reporting and analysis. He continues to be a respected journalist in the Detroit sports industry.

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